J.P. Morgan 金屬與礦業(yè)電話會(huì)：中國鋼鐵、鐵礦石、銅與鋁展望

Rodolfo: Okay, so thanks, everyone, for dialing in. Today I have my colleagues from different geographies here at J.P. Morgan, my go-to team when it comes to global insight on what is happening in the metals and mining sector. We have Dom in the UK covering stocks in the region, Avery in China joining late at night to spend some time with us, and Bennett from the U.S. team. As usual, I also have Tasha here helping cover the sector. The idea is to discuss the most relevant themes for the sector and make this as useful to you as possible. If you have questions, please just use the Q&A button on the screen and we will read and merge your questions and send them along to my colleagues or I will answer them as well. Before I start, I have to remind everyone that we are in the final week of the Extel campaign, so please consider voting for us. It is very, very important for J.P. Morgan. We are running in Metals & Mining, but we are also running in other categories, including myself and the team in Oil & Gas, Petrochemicals, and Pulp & Paper, all of them equally relevant and important. So if you think we were helpful to you, please, please consider the vote. And with that, let us start.

Rodolfo：好的，感謝大家撥入電話。今天我邀請了 J.P. Morgan 來自不同地區(qū)的同事一起參會(huì)，他們是我在金屬與礦業(yè)板塊全球視角上的核心團(tuán)隊(duì)。我們有來自英國、負(fù)責(zé)當(dāng)?shù)叵嚓P(guān)股票研究的 Dom；也有深夜連線加入我們的中國團(tuán)隊(duì) Avery；還有美國團(tuán)隊(duì)的 Bennett。和往常一樣，Tasha 也在這里協(xié)助板塊覆蓋。今天的目標(biāo)是討論行業(yè)里最重要的主題，并盡可能讓這場電話會(huì)對各位有幫助。如果大家有問題，請直接使用屏幕上的 Q&A 按鈕，我們會(huì)匯總大家的問題后轉(zhuǎn)給相關(guān)同事，或者由我來回答。在開始之前我還要提醒大家，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)進(jìn)入 Extel 評(píng)選的最后一周，所以請考慮給我們投票，這對 J.P. Morgan 非常重要。我們參評(píng)的有 Metals & Mining，也包括我和團(tuán)隊(duì)參與覆蓋的 Oil & Gas、Petrochemicals 以及 Pulp & Paper 等類別，都同樣重要。如果你覺得我們的研究對你有幫助，請務(wù)必考慮投票。下面我們正式開始。

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Rodolfo: I want to start with one of the topics we have been getting a lot of questions on recently, which is what is happening in iron ore, especially in relation to China and BHP. Dom, can you talk a little bit about what happened there? On Friday, in theory, some of the hurdles were removed. Can you discuss what was behind it and what you think the consequences are for iron ore?

Rodolfo：我想先從最近大家問得很多的一個(gè)話題開始，那就是鐵礦石，尤其是與中國和 BHP 相關(guān)的情況。Dom，你能不能先講講那里到底發(fā)生了什么？理論上周五一些障礙似乎已經(jīng)被移除了。你能談?wù)劚澈蟮脑?，以及你認(rèn)為這對鐵礦石會(huì)帶來什么影響嗎？

Dom: Sure. Our global forecasts for iron ore prices are for iron ore to trade at $105 a ton in Q1 and Q2 before stepping down to $95 a ton in Q3 and Q4. So 2025, 2026, and 2027 are quite a transformational period in the iron ore market, most obviously because of the entry of Simandou. Our forecasts do embed supply growth coming through from the majors, albeit Simandou produces only around 25 million tons in our 2026 forecasts. So Simandou is relevant. In terms of what has happened over the last month, in February there was a fatality at Simandou and Rio announced that they closed the mine. There has yet to be an announcement that it has formally reopened, so our assumption is that it is not yet fully restored in terms of operating capacity.

Dom：好的。我們的全球預(yù)測是，鐵礦石價(jià)格在一季度和二季度平均為每噸 105 美元，隨后在三季度和四季度回落至每噸 95 美元。因此，對鐵礦石市場而言，2025、2026 和 2027 年都是相當(dāng)具有轉(zhuǎn)折意義的時(shí)期，最明顯的原因就是西芒杜（Simandou）的投產(chǎn)。我們的預(yù)測確實(shí)已經(jīng)納入了大型礦商供給增長的因素，不過在我們的 2026 年預(yù)測中，西芒杜的產(chǎn)量大約只有 2500 萬噸，因此它確實(shí)重要，但短期內(nèi)量還不算特別大。就最近一個(gè)月發(fā)生的事情來說，西芒杜在 2 月發(fā)生了一起致命事故，隨后力拓宣布關(guān)閉礦山。到目前為止，還沒有正式宣布已經(jīng)復(fù)產(chǎn)，因此我們的假設(shè)是，礦山運(yùn)營能力尚未完全恢復(fù)。

Dom: In addition, we are at the point in the year where seasonality is most pronounced in terms of constraints on exports coming out of Australia and Brazil because of the rainy season, but also in China because domestic supply typically freezes during the winter months. So January and February do typically represent the period where prices peak from a seasonality perspective. That usually reverses as we move into calendar Q2 as Brazilian, Australian, and Chinese supply re-enters the market. In that respect, the moves we have seen recently in prices are not abnormal. We have seen prices move from $95 a ton in early October up to a peak as of last week of $109 a ton.

Dom：此外，我們現(xiàn)在正處于季節(jié)性影響最強(qiáng)的時(shí)候。澳大利亞和巴西因?yàn)橛昙緯?huì)面臨出口約束，中國國內(nèi)供給則通常會(huì)在冬季月份出現(xiàn)凍結(jié)或收縮。因此，從季節(jié)性角度看，1 月和 2 月通常就是價(jià)格見頂?shù)碾A段。隨著我們進(jìn)入日歷二季度，巴西、澳大利亞以及中國的供給重新回到市場，這種情況一般會(huì)逆轉(zhuǎn)。從這個(gè)角度看，我們最近看到的價(jià)格波動(dòng)并不反常。鐵礦石價(jià)格從 10 月初的每噸 95 美元，上漲到了上周每噸 109 美元的階段高點(diǎn)。

Dom: But there was one other factor that is relevant. BHP has been in negotiations with CMRG, the Chinese state central iron ore negotiating entity that was created about three years ago to act as a procurement body for iron ore on behalf of Chinese steel mills. These negotiations between CMRG and BHP have become difficult. Although it has not been officially confirmed, the reporting is that CMRG had instructed Chinese steel mills that they were not able to buy iron ore from one particular mine called Jimblebar. Jimblebar produces about 65 million tons a year, so it is a big mine, about 15 million tons a quarter. Because Jimblebar was essentially out of the market from a sales perspective, we believe that Jimblebar inventory had been stored and stockpiled at the ports in China awaiting sale.

Dom：但還有另一個(gè)非常相關(guān)的因素。BHP 一直在與 CMRG 談判。CMRG 是中國大約三年前成立的國家級(jí)集中鐵礦石談判與采購平臺(tái)，目的是代表中國鋼廠進(jìn)行統(tǒng)一采購。最近 CMRG 和 BHP 之間的談判變得比較困難。雖然沒有正式確認(rèn)，但市場報(bào)道是，CMRG 曾指示中國鋼廠不得采購 BHP 旗下某一座名為 Jimblebar 的礦山的鐵礦石。Jimblebar 年產(chǎn)量大約 6500 萬噸，是一個(gè)很大的礦，每季度大概 1500 萬噸左右。由于 Jimblebar 實(shí)際上在銷售端被排除在市場之外，我們認(rèn)為其對應(yīng)庫存被堆存在中國港口，等待后續(xù)銷售。

Dom: Then a report came out on Wednesday or Thursday last week that CMRG was potentially going to add a second BHP mine to the exclusion list, a mine called Mt Newman, which produces around 75 million tons a year. So that would in total potentially cover about 40% of BHP’s annual production. It was that second mine, and the rumors around it, that then led to a scramble among Chinese buyers for alternative sources of iron ore. We believe that was a key reason why the price moved 6% higher last week. What then happened on Friday, late Friday afternoon, was a report that because of this price spike, CMRG was considering relaxing the restrictions on Jimblebar, which would essentially allow the sale of the inventory that was held at port. We believe that relaxation, if applied to Jimblebar and if Mt Newman is not covered by restriction, would potentially allow more iron ore to enter the market in China and thus add some downside risk to iron ore prices. But again, that downside risk is also realistic just from normal seasonality as we move into Q2. There is a lot going on here, and it is happening in a market where Chinese steel production continues to be quite weak, still tracking at the bottom of its five-year range for this time of year.

Dom：隨后在上周三或周四又有報(bào)道稱，CMRG 可能會(huì)把 BHP 的第二座礦山 Mt Newman 也列入限制名單。Mt Newman 年產(chǎn)量大約 7500 萬噸。如果兩座礦都被納入限制，那涉及的規(guī)模將接近 BHP 年產(chǎn)量的 40%。正是關(guān)于第二座礦山的傳聞，引發(fā)了中國買家對其他鐵礦石來源的搶購，我們認(rèn)為這正是上周價(jià)格上漲 6% 的關(guān)鍵原因。接著在周五下午晚些時(shí)候，又有報(bào)道稱，由于這一輪價(jià)格飆升，CMRG 正在考慮放松對 Jimblebar 的限制，這本質(zhì)上意味著此前堆存在港口的那批庫存可以重新銷售。我們認(rèn)為，如果 Jimblebar 的限制被放開，而 Mt Newman 又沒有被納入新的限制范圍，那么中國市場可流通的鐵礦石將增加，從而給鐵礦石價(jià)格帶來一定下行壓力。當(dāng)然，即便不考慮這一點(diǎn)，隨著市場進(jìn)入二季度，單從正常季節(jié)性因素來看，價(jià)格本來也存在一定下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。這里面發(fā)生了很多事情，而且都發(fā)生在一個(gè)中國鋼鐵產(chǎn)量持續(xù)偏弱的市場環(huán)境里。就這個(gè)季節(jié)來看，中國鋼鐵產(chǎn)量仍然位于過去五年區(qū)間的底部附近。

Rodolfo: Let me do a quick follow-up. Is this confirmed already, that the restrictions are actually going to be relaxed, or is it still just market rumors? Because from what I checked, iron ore prices today still look quite flat, and from our perspective this could actually lead to price contraction.

Rodolfo：我想快速追問一下。這件事現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)確認(rèn)了嗎？也就是說，限制真的會(huì)被放松，還是目前仍然只是市場傳聞？因?yàn)閺奈铱吹降慕裉扈F礦石價(jià)格表現(xiàn)來看，整體還是比較平的。而按我們的理解，如果限制放開，確實(shí)可能帶來價(jià)格回落。

Dom: It is not formally confirmed. But equally, the original exclusion of Jimblebar was not formally confirmed either by BHP or by the Chinese authorities. Still, it has been widely reported that Jimblebar was excluded, and it has also been widely reported that of the 175 million tons of iron ore inventory currently sitting in Chinese ports, which is among the highest levels we have seen in the last six years, about 10 million tons relates to Jimblebar. So it sounds relatively well sourced.

Dom：目前還沒有正式確認(rèn)。不過，同樣需要指出的是，最初 Jimblebar 被限制采購這件事，也并不是 BHP 或中國主管部門正式確認(rèn)的。盡管如此，市場普遍都在報(bào)道 Jimblebar 確實(shí)被排除了，而且也廣泛有報(bào)道稱，在當(dāng)前中國港口約 1.75 億噸的鐵礦石庫存中——這個(gè)庫存水平已經(jīng)處于過去六年中較高的位置——大約有 1000 萬噸與 Jimblebar 有關(guān)。所以整體來看，這類消息的來源還是比較可靠的。

Avery: Maybe I can add a bit from the China perspective. What we are seeing when we speak with some of the steel experts and industry channels is that there has indeed been some movement at the ports, but mostly in the higher-grade material. I do think that from an execution perspective, Chinese buyers are trying to secure some of the higher-grade ores, and Newman products should be higher grade than Jimblebar. So that broadly echoes what Dom just mentioned.

Avery：我可以從中國視角補(bǔ)充一點(diǎn)。我們和一些鋼鐵行業(yè)專家以及渠道交流后看到，港口層面確實(shí)出現(xiàn)了一些動(dòng)向，但主要集中在高品位礦上。我認(rèn)為，從執(zhí)行層面看，中國買家確實(shí)在設(shè)法鎖定一些高品位鐵礦石，而 Newman 系列產(chǎn)品如果我沒記錯(cuò)的話，品位應(yīng)當(dāng)高于 Jimblebar。所以從這個(gè)角度看，這基本印證了 Dom 剛才提到的情況。

Avery: On steel, although the reported steel production data have looked weak, when we speak with steel mills, covered companies, and experts, they are all pointing to a similar conclusion: steel production last year might have been somewhat underreported. We have done some analysis and a deeper study suggesting that last year steel production may actually have been flat to only slightly down. That also helps explain part of the support for iron ore prices.

Avery：至于鋼鐵方面，雖然官方公布的鋼產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù)看上去偏弱，但當(dāng)我們和鋼廠、覆蓋公司以及行業(yè)專家溝通時(shí)，他們都指向一個(gè)相似的結(jié)論：去年鋼鐵產(chǎn)量可能存在一定程度的低報(bào)。我們也做過一些分析和更深入的研究，結(jié)論是去年的鋼產(chǎn)量可能實(shí)際上只是持平，或者僅僅是小幅下降。這也在一定程度上解釋了為什么鐵礦石價(jià)格能獲得支撐。

Rodolfo: I want to follow up on steel. One of the key discussions is the amount of exports out of China, which historically has been super high even though it fluctuates a bit. What should we expect for this year? Because that really matters for steelmakers. Do you see a scenario where China would export less than it has been exporting? And if I may just complement that, can you also include how the war affects logistics?

Rodolfo：我想繼續(xù)追問一下鋼鐵出口。市場目前一個(gè)核心討論點(diǎn)是中國鋼材出口規(guī)模，歷史上一直非常高，雖然會(huì)有些波動(dòng)。今年應(yīng)該怎么看？因?yàn)檫@對鋼廠真的非常重要。你是否看到一種情形，就是中國的鋼材出口會(huì)明顯低于此前的水平？如果可以的話，也請你順帶講一下戰(zhàn)爭對物流的影響。

Avery: That is a very good question. Essentially, we think of steel exports as a balancing figure. Whatever China cannot consume domestically, it will tend to export. That is how I view steel exports. If we go back to the National People’s Congress two weeks ago, there was slightly stronger language around steel production curbs and capacity curbs, but there were no numerical targets, no concrete numbers, and no clear policy mechanism. So if we stay in the status quo, then even on the official numbers steel production may only be down slightly. Domestic demand is weak, and therefore steel still needs to be exported.

Avery：這是個(gè)非常好的問題。我們的基本看法是，鋼材出口本質(zhì)上是一個(gè)平衡項(xiàng)。中國國內(nèi)消化不了的鋼材，最終就會(huì)出口出去。這是我理解鋼材出口的核心邏輯。如果回看兩周前的全國兩會(huì)，關(guān)于鋼鐵減產(chǎn)和去產(chǎn)能的表述確實(shí)稍微更強(qiáng)了一些，但并沒有明確的數(shù)字目標(biāo)，也沒有具體的政策落地機(jī)制。所以如果維持現(xiàn)狀，那么即便按照官方統(tǒng)計(jì)口徑，鋼鐵產(chǎn)量也只是小幅下降。國內(nèi)需求偏弱，因此鋼材依然需要通過出口來消化。

Avery: Before production or capacity actually comes down, the nominal level of steel exports will continue to stay high. Earlier tariffs did affect flows somewhat, but even last year exports remained high despite tariffs because a large part of the steel was simply redirected to new countries. Saudi Arabia actually increased a bit, and several African countries also increased quite a lot. So while we originally expected exports to be down a few percentage points this year, I do think the export outlook is getting somewhat worse in the near term for two reasons. First, there is a new rule requiring more export clearance, so the time required for export has lengthened to a month or two. That affects the first couple of months because exporters need to apply for the relevant licenses before shipment. Second, in terms of the war, if you add the UAE and Saudi together, they account for around 12% of Chinese steel exports. Because of that, we do think steel exports are going to be slightly weaker in the shorter term, at least in the first quarter and perhaps the first four to five months of 2026. But on a total basis, I think there is still a huge chunk of exports that will simply reroute to other countries or through other channels. So even if exports decline a few single-digit percentage points, on a nominal basis they are still very likely to remain above 100 million tons per year.

Avery：在真正看到產(chǎn)量或產(chǎn)能下降之前，鋼材出口的名義規(guī)模仍會(huì)維持在高位。此前的關(guān)稅確實(shí)對流向造成了一些影響，但即便去年面臨各種關(guān)稅，出口依然維持高位，因?yàn)楹艽笠徊糠咒摬闹皇寝D(zhuǎn)流到了新的國家和地區(qū)。比如沙特的進(jìn)口就有所增加，非洲有幾個(gè)國家的進(jìn)口也增加得相當(dāng)明顯。所以，雖然我們最初預(yù)計(jì)今年鋼材出口會(huì)下降幾個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，但我確實(shí)認(rèn)為短期內(nèi)出口前景正在變差，主要有兩個(gè)原因。第一，新的規(guī)則要求出口前完成更多清關(guān)程序，因此出口所需時(shí)間被拉長到了一個(gè)月甚至兩個(gè)月。這會(huì)影響最初幾個(gè)月，因?yàn)槌隹谏绦枰壬暾埾嚓P(guān)許可后才能裝運(yùn)。第二，從戰(zhàn)爭影響來看，如果把阿聯(lián)酋和沙特加總，它們占中國鋼材出口的比例大約在 12% 左右。因此我們確實(shí)認(rèn)為，鋼材出口在短期內(nèi)會(huì)偏弱，至少是一季度，甚至可能延續(xù)到 2026 年前四到五個(gè)月。但從總量角度看，我認(rèn)為仍有很大一部分出口會(huì)被重新導(dǎo)流到其他國家或通過其他渠道完成。所以即便出口在名義上下降幾個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，其年度總量仍極有可能維持在 1 億噸以上。

Rodolfo: Let me push on that. Since China restarted exporting a lot of steel globally, many countries have tried to impose restrictions or increase tariffs. We have seen this in Europe and even in Brazil. Despite all these measures, we still continue to see very high export levels from China. Can you comment on where these exports are going with the latest data that you have?

Rodolfo：我想再追問一層。自從中國重新開始大量向全球出口鋼材以來，很多國家都在試圖加限制、加關(guān)稅。我們在歐洲看到了，在巴西也看到了。可即便如此，中國鋼材出口規(guī)模依然維持在很高的水平?；谀悻F(xiàn)在掌握的最新數(shù)據(jù)，你能否談?wù)勥@些出口到底流向了哪里？

Avery: If we look at the tariff tracker for the full year, there have been many tariff actions and in many cases the tariff ranges have been fairly high. But if you look at where the exports are actually going, Vietnam is still high on the list despite the tariffs. In the “others” category, African countries account for nearly 10%. My interpretation is that Africa itself obviously needs some steel, but not that much, so a large portion of that probably goes through Africa as a transshipment route to other countries. South Korea came down after its own policy actions, and India is no longer meaningful in the data this year. Brazil has come down too, but it still accounts for roughly 3%. So some countries have seen a one percentage point reduction or so, but if you look at the totality, a lot of steel has simply gone to Africa, and Africa is likely serving partly as a transshipment channel.

Avery：如果我們看全年關(guān)稅跟蹤情況，會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)過去一年確實(shí)出現(xiàn)了大量的貿(mào)易措施，很多關(guān)稅水平也都不低。但如果你去看實(shí)際出口流向，會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)越南在加征關(guān)稅之后依然處在較高位置。在“其他地區(qū)”里面，非洲國家合計(jì)已經(jīng)接近 10%。我的理解是，非洲自身當(dāng)然有鋼材需求，但絕對不至于需要這么多，所以其中很大一部分很可能是通過非洲進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)，最后流向其他國家。韓國在出臺(tái)自身政策后進(jìn)口規(guī)模確實(shí)下降了，印度今年在數(shù)據(jù)中也已經(jīng)基本不重要了。巴西也有所下降，但仍然大約占到 3%。所以，雖然有些國家的占比確實(shí)下降了 1 個(gè)百分點(diǎn)左右，但從全局來看，很多鋼材只是流向了非洲，而非洲在其中很可能承擔(dān)了一部分轉(zhuǎn)運(yùn)功能。

Rodolfo: Let me shift gears and go to Bennett on the U.S. The U.S. has been, I think, the most protected market in terms of keeping steel imports out, and that has consequences. U.S. steel prices trade at a considerable premium to prices in other regions. Can you talk a little bit about how that is impacting demand? More importantly for the Latin American investors on the line, non-residential demand in the U.S. is a relevant category. So if you could comment on demand by segment, that would be great.

Rodolfo：我想把話題轉(zhuǎn)到美國這邊，請 Bennett 來講講。美國在限制鋼材進(jìn)口方面，我覺得可以說是保護(hù)力度最大的市場，而這自然也帶來了后果。美國鋼價(jià)相對其他地區(qū)一直存在明顯溢價(jià)。你能不能談?wù)勥@對需求造成了什么影響？另外，對今天在線的拉美投資者來說，美國的非住宅建筑需求是一個(gè)很重要的類別。如果你能按不同需求板塊展開講講，那就太好了。

Bennett: Sure, happy to. To frame the context, 50% Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum went into effect back in June 2025, and we have really seen the spread between selling prices and scrap input costs take a step change higher since then. That is a function of imports steadily trending lower after the tariffs went into place, so mills have seen structurally higher steel pricing. Despite this higher pricing, however, we are not seeing or hearing any evidence of material demand destruction at this time. I would note that we just published our latest steel apparent consumption dashboard using January 2026 data, and that does suggest that real demand still remains rather tepid. Put another way, post-tariffs steel apparent consumption from June 2025 through January 2026 has tracked about 6% below the trailing five-year average. Mills are running harder and at higher utilization, but they are mostly displacing imports rather than serving incremental demand.

Bennett：當(dāng)然，可以。先給大家一個(gè)框架。2025 年 6 月，美國對鋼鐵和鋁實(shí)施了 50% 的 Section 232 關(guān)稅。自那以后，我們確實(shí)看到鋼材銷售價(jià)格與廢鋼等原料成本之間的價(jià)差出現(xiàn)了明顯臺(tái)階式上升。這背后的原因是，關(guān)稅生效后進(jìn)口量持續(xù)下滑，從而支撐了更高的國內(nèi)鋼價(jià)。不過，盡管價(jià)格更高，我們目前并沒有看到或聽到明確的需求破壞證據(jù)。我想提一下，我們剛剛發(fā)布了基于 2026 年 1 月數(shù)據(jù)的最新鋼材表觀消費(fèi)跟蹤，結(jié)果顯示真實(shí)需求仍然偏疲弱。換句話說，在 2025 年 6 月至 2026 年 1 月這個(gè)關(guān)稅后時(shí)期，美國鋼材表觀消費(fèi)量大約比過去五年均值低 6%。鋼廠的開工率確實(shí)更高了，但更多是在替代進(jìn)口，而不是服務(wù)于新增需求。

Bennett: Some of the price support may also be coming from supply-side dynamics. Mills are building inventory ahead of spring outages, and lead times have extended toward the high end of the typical four- to six-week range for hot-rolled coil. When we think about demand buckets, non-residential construction is around 50% of U.S. demand. Autos are around 25%, and the balance is general industrial, energy, and consumer. For non-residential construction, two leading indicators that we like are the ABI index and the Dodge Momentum Index. The ABI index, which leads non-residential construction spending by roughly nine to twelve months and has about a 70% correlation, fell in January to its lowest level since September 2025, and it has really been in contraction territory for roughly three years. Conversely, the Dodge Momentum Index, which leads by about twelve to eighteen months, has continued to show strong year-over-year growth. We interpret that as good planning and pent-up demand in the pipeline, but many of those projects remain sidelined and probably need more confidence from both buyers and builders to move forward.

Bennett：價(jià)格獲得支撐的另一個(gè)原因，也可能來自供給側(cè)因素。鋼廠正在為春季停產(chǎn)檢修提前補(bǔ)庫存，熱軋卷板的交貨周期也已經(jīng)拉長到了通常 4 至 6 周區(qū)間的高端。再說需求結(jié)構(gòu)，美國鋼材需求中，非住宅建筑大約占 50%，汽車大約占 25%，剩余部分是通用工業(yè)、能源和消費(fèi)品。對于非住宅建筑，我們最看重的兩個(gè)領(lǐng)先指標(biāo)是 ABI 指數(shù)和 Dodge Momentum 指數(shù)。ABI 指數(shù)大約領(lǐng)先非住宅建筑支出 9 至 12 個(gè)月，相關(guān)性大約 70%。其 1 月讀數(shù)降到了 2025 年 9 月以來的最低點(diǎn)，而且實(shí)際上已經(jīng)在收縮區(qū)間停留了大約三年。相反，Dodge Momentum 指數(shù)大約領(lǐng)先 12 至 18 個(gè)月，最近仍然顯示出較強(qiáng)的同比增長。我們的解讀是，項(xiàng)目規(guī)劃端依然不錯(cuò)，管道中也存在被壓抑的需求，但很多項(xiàng)目目前仍然停留在紙面階段，還需要買方和建設(shè)方都獲得更多信心，才會(huì)真正落地推進(jìn)。

Bennett: In autos, IHS’s latest North America light vehicle forecast calls for a mild contraction this year off a lower base last year, before recovering more in 2027 and 2028. In general industrial, the ISM PMI that we track has actually moved back into expansion territory over the past two months after spending more than three years in contraction. We also had Reliance, the largest U.S. metal service center, on the road last week, and when we spoke with managers on the floor there were indications that there has been a slight uptick year over year, beyond normal seasonality, in general manufacturing. So bringing all of that together, real demand in the U.S. still remains somewhat challenged, but if you have a U.S. footprint you are certainly benefiting from strong margins. We will have to see how some of this uncertainty unfolds over the next few months, including the iron ore war, USMCA negotiations, and other issues that may determine the trajectory into the back half of the year.

Bennett：汽車方面，IHS 最新的北美輕型車產(chǎn)量預(yù)測顯示，今年會(huì)在去年較低基數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)上出現(xiàn)溫和收縮，之后在 2027 和 2028 年再恢復(fù)。通用工業(yè)方面，我們跟蹤的 ISM PMI 在經(jīng)歷了三年多的收縮后，過去兩個(gè)月已經(jīng)重新回到擴(kuò)張區(qū)間。我們上周還和美國最大的金屬服務(wù)中心 Reliance 進(jìn)行了交流，在一線和管理層溝通時(shí)，大家都提到一般制造業(yè)活動(dòng)同比確實(shí)有一些回升，而且不只是季節(jié)性因素導(dǎo)致。因此，把這些因素合在一起看，美國真實(shí)需求依然有些偏弱，但只要你擁有美國本土產(chǎn)能布局，就確實(shí)能享受到更強(qiáng)的利潤率。接下來幾個(gè)月，我們還得繼續(xù)觀察這些不確定性如何演化，包括鐵礦石這邊的擾動(dòng)、USMCA 談判以及其他會(huì)影響今年下半年走勢的因素。

Rodolfo: And Bennett, I think you just touched on a very important question, which is USMCA. When do you think we might reach an agreement there? And another topic that European investors keep asking about is anti-dumping for rebar. It was supposed to be voted on last year and maybe we hear more by mid-year. If you can comment on that as well, that would be great.

Rodolfo：Bennett，我覺得你剛剛提到了一個(gè)非常重要的問題，那就是 USMCA。你認(rèn)為這方面大概什么時(shí)候可能會(huì)達(dá)成協(xié)議？另外一個(gè)歐洲投資者一直在問的話題是螺紋鋼的反傾銷。原本去年就該推進(jìn)投票，現(xiàn)在看上去可能要到年中附近才會(huì)有更多進(jìn)展。如果你也能就此做些評(píng)論，那就太好了。

Bennett: It is anybody’s guess how USMCA is going to play out. We have heard Trump over the last month or so talking about potentially dissolving the trade pact altogether. At the same time, talks with Mexico and the U.S. are kicking off today, while Canada, where the relationship remains more strained, will probably join at a later date. Our base case really has not changed since last year, which is that we do not think there is going to be any sort of blanket Section 232 steel tariff reprieve like was seen in prior administrations. We continue to feel that Mexico and Canada, in order to get any sort of reprieve, need to implement similar, if not even more stringent, protectionist measures than those now in place in the U.S., with particular emphasis on blocking transshipments.

Bennett：USMCA 最終會(huì)怎么走，現(xiàn)在誰也沒法給出確定答案。過去一個(gè)月左右，我們聽到特朗普甚至談到過徹底解散這一貿(mào)易協(xié)定的可能性。與此同時(shí)，美國和墨西哥之間的談判今天已經(jīng)啟動(dòng)，而與加拿大之間的關(guān)系仍然更加緊張，加拿大大概會(huì)稍晚一些再加入談判。我們的基本判斷自去年以來并沒有變化，即我們并不認(rèn)為會(huì)像此前某些政府時(shí)期那樣，出現(xiàn)某種全面性的 Section 232 鋼鐵關(guān)稅豁免。我們依然認(rèn)為，墨西哥和加拿大如果想獲得任何形式的豁免，前提都必須是實(shí)施與美國相近、甚至更嚴(yán)格的貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施，尤其是要在堵住轉(zhuǎn)口貿(mào)易方面拿出足夠行動(dòng)。

Bennett: Mexico appears to have a slight head start in trying to address this. We were reading industry press last week about an “Operation Cleanup” that resulted in the suspension of import activities at around 350 companies suspected of participating in transshipments, with another 400 companies under review. So if Mexico and Canada can block transshipments and put similar protectionism in place, that is the only real opening to get some sort of relief, maybe in the form of a tariff-rate quota with a lower tariff rate, not a full reprieve. We will have to wait and see.

Bennett：墨西哥在試圖應(yīng)對這個(gè)問題上，看起來略微走在前面。上周我們從行業(yè)媒體看到，墨西哥在開展一項(xiàng)所謂的“清理行動(dòng)”，其中大約有 350 家被懷疑參與轉(zhuǎn)口貿(mào)易的公司被暫停進(jìn)口資格，另有 400 家公司正在接受審查。所以，如果墨西哥和加拿大能夠真正堵住轉(zhuǎn)口渠道，并建立起類似的保護(hù)框架，那才可能打開一定程度的豁免窗口，形式也許是較低稅率的配額機(jī)制，而不會(huì)是完全豁免。最終如何，還需要繼續(xù)觀察。

Bennett: On rebar, just last week we got preliminary anti-dumping and countervailing duties for three additional countries that had been in scope. I believe those were Algeria, Egypt, and Vietnam, plus one more country. Those countries alone accounted for around 50% of rebar imports last year. Since the trade case was introduced, we have already seen imports from those players fall off completely. Rebar prices have been pretty high, though recently they are the one price point that has started to roll over, maybe by $15 to $20 per ton in the last two to three weeks. New supply is coming on, and it is also a seasonally weaker period. What is interesting, and something we need to monitor, is that we have seen other importers step into the market since those countries were forced out. Turkey had a lot of inflows in December and January. Import licensing data for February also show South Korea appearing in a way it never had before. One month of data is not a trend, but it may end up looking like a plug-and-play replacement by other importers.

Bennett：至于螺紋鋼，上周我們剛剛看到，針對此前已經(jīng)被納入調(diào)查范圍的另外三個(gè)國家，初步反傾銷和反補(bǔ)貼稅裁定已經(jīng)出臺(tái)。我記得其中包括阿爾及利亞、埃及和越南，可能還有另外一個(gè)國家。僅這幾個(gè)國家，去年就占到了螺紋鋼進(jìn)口的大約 50%。自從貿(mào)易案件啟動(dòng)以來，我們已經(jīng)看到來自這些國家的進(jìn)口幾乎完全消失了。螺紋鋼價(jià)格此前一直很高，不過最近它是少數(shù)開始回落的鋼材品種，過去兩到三周大約跌了每噸 15 到 20 美元。一方面是有新增供給釋放，另一方面當(dāng)前也處于季節(jié)性偏弱階段。更值得關(guān)注的是，在這些國家被擠出市場之后，其他進(jìn)口來源開始填補(bǔ)空缺。土耳其在 12 月和 1 月有相當(dāng)多的貨物流入，而 2 月的進(jìn)口許可數(shù)據(jù)也顯示韓國開始以前所未有的方式出現(xiàn)在市場中。一個(gè)月的數(shù)據(jù)還不足以形成趨勢，但這確實(shí)像是一種“按下葫蘆浮起瓢”的替代現(xiàn)象，值得持續(xù)跟蹤。

Rodolfo: Let me shift a little bit to Latin America. We have already touched on the high level of exports that Brazil is receiving. Can you share a little bit of your view on the Latin American steel industry at this point?

Rodolfo：我想稍微把話題轉(zhuǎn)到拉丁美洲。我們已經(jīng)提到，巴西正在接收大量進(jìn)口鋼材。你能不能分享一下你目前對拉美鋼鐵行業(yè)的整體看法？

Rodolfo: I think the structural challenge for local producers in Brazil is quite clear. At the end of the day, they are competing with steel coming from abroad, mainly from China, and that has a major effect, which is to depress prices. On top of that, the Brazilian steel industry is relatively old, in the sense that it requires a lot of maintenance capex. We have been in a price environment where the industry’s profitability has not really allowed companies even to maintain their assets in a fully competitive condition. So it is a very, very challenging story here. However, that is not something new. It has been the case for a while. In the very short term, there are always investors who focus more on trading opportunities, because most of the businesses in Brazil have single-digit margins, so if there is news of a 10% price hike that can sometimes double profitability levels. In that sense, the space has become something of a trading sector.

Rodolfo：我認(rèn)為，巴西本地鋼廠面臨的結(jié)構(gòu)性挑戰(zhàn)其實(shí)非常清楚。歸根結(jié)底，它們是在和海外鋼材競爭，主要就是中國進(jìn)口鋼材，而這帶來的直接影響就是壓低價(jià)格。與此同時(shí)，巴西鋼鐵行業(yè)整體設(shè)備偏老，意味著需要較高的維護(hù)性資本開支。過去這一段時(shí)間的價(jià)格環(huán)境，使得行業(yè)盈利能力其實(shí)并不足以讓企業(yè)把資產(chǎn)維持在充分具備競爭力的狀態(tài)。所以這個(gè)板塊的基本面是非常、非常有挑戰(zhàn)性的。當(dāng)然，這也不是什么新問題，而是已經(jīng)持續(xù)了一段時(shí)間。短期來看，總會(huì)有一些更偏交易型的投資者在里面尋找機(jī)會(huì)，因?yàn)榘臀鞫鄶?shù)鋼鐵企業(yè)的利潤率只有個(gè)位數(shù)，一旦出現(xiàn) 10% 的提價(jià)消息，利潤水平有時(shí)就足以翻倍。所以從這個(gè)意義上說，這個(gè)板塊已經(jīng)在某種程度上變成了一個(gè)交易型板塊。

Rodolfo: But our top-down view remains cautious. Until we see a change in policy in China, something that would prevent exports from staying north of 100 million tons, this challenge is going to remain. So on average I am more on the negative side. The one name we like best among the Brazilian steelmakers is Gerdau, because it has exposure to the U.S. I think management is fully conscious of the challenges in running the Brazilian business, and the operations in the U.S. have been super profitable and really the driver of earnings for this company.

Rodolfo：但從自上而下的角度看，我們總體仍然偏謹(jǐn)慎。除非看到中國政策發(fā)生變化，真正阻止鋼材出口維持在 1 億噸以上，否則這種挑戰(zhàn)就會(huì)一直存在。所以整體上，我還是更偏負(fù)面一些。在巴西鋼鐵股里，我們最喜歡的名字是 Gerdau，因?yàn)樗忻绹鴺I(yè)務(wù)敞口。我認(rèn)為公司管理層對巴西業(yè)務(wù)面臨的挑戰(zhàn)是非常清醒的，而它在美國的業(yè)務(wù)一直都非常賺錢，也的確是公司盈利的核心驅(qū)動(dòng)力。

Client question: On Simandou, putting aside the temporary disruption you mentioned earlier, what should we expect in terms of ramp-up? Do you have any updates on what you are seeing there?

客戶提問：關(guān)于西芒杜，先不考慮你剛才提到的短期擾動(dòng)，你們對其爬坡節(jié)奏有什么預(yù)期？對于目前項(xiàng)目進(jìn)展，你們還有哪些補(bǔ)充更新？

Dom: Yes. Our formal forecasts for Simandou are 5 million tons in 2025, 21 million tons in 2026, 64 million tons in 2027, and 104 million tons in 2028, reaching a sustainable run rate toward the end of 2028 and then hitting peak production capacity of 130 million tons in 2029. As I said, there was a fatality in February, the mine was closed in the middle of February, and as far as I am aware we have not yet seen a communicated restart. That said, the volumes we forecast for 2026 are still relatively low, and there is room to catch those up through the year. At this stage I am not expecting a meaningful reduction to our 2026 Simandou forecast.

Dom：好的。我們對西芒杜的正式預(yù)測是：2025 年產(chǎn)量 500 萬噸，2026 年 2100 萬噸，2027 年 6400 萬噸，2028 年 1.04 億噸，并在 2028 年末附近達(dá)到可持續(xù)運(yùn)行水平，隨后在 2029 年達(dá)到 1.3 億噸的峰值產(chǎn)能。正如我剛才說的，2 月發(fā)生了事故，礦山在 2 月中旬關(guān)閉，而據(jù)我所知，目前還沒有正式對外宣布復(fù)產(chǎn)。不過，我們對 2026 年的預(yù)測本身量就不算高，而且全年仍有補(bǔ)回產(chǎn)量的空間。因此在現(xiàn)階段，我并不預(yù)期我們會(huì)對 2026 年的西芒杜產(chǎn)量預(yù)測做出實(shí)質(zhì)性下調(diào)。

Rodolfo: Let me shift gears a little bit and start discussing copper. We have already received a couple of questions, but the first one is on your overall view on copper supply and demand this year. Why do you think there is downside risk despite these high prices? And maybe after that we can come to Avery on aluminum and what recession risk would mean there.

Rodolfo：我想稍微換個(gè)話題，開始談?wù)勩~。我們已經(jīng)收到幾個(gè)相關(guān)問題了，但第一個(gè)還是想先問問你們對今年銅供需的總體看法。既然價(jià)格已經(jīng)這么高了，你為什么仍然認(rèn)為存在下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)？在你回答完之后，我們再請 Avery 講講鋁，以及如果出現(xiàn)衰退風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，鋁這邊會(huì)怎么受影響。

Dom: This is very topical for the note we published last week. From a London and broader European perspective, we actually downgraded the sector last week from overweight to underweight, specifically moving underweight on copper equities and underweight on copper the commodity. I appreciate that this is a pretty counter-consensus call, and we had significant pushback from investors last week. There are a few things to note. First, if we look at our forecasts for global refined copper demand growth in 2026, J.P. Morgan is forecasting around 2.5% growth. We see the copper market in 2026 in a deficit of around 220,000 tons because of a series of supply disruptions announced in September and October that were very severe, but then flipping into a surplus of over 200,000 tons in 2027. So we do think those supply shortages will alleviate as we move into the second half of this year, and the market should increasingly see the supplies that are entering in 2027. That means the supply shock that has been a major driver of higher copper prices over the last six months should start to ease.

Dom：這個(gè)問題和我們上周發(fā)布的報(bào)告高度相關(guān)。從倫敦和更廣泛的歐洲視角來看，我們上周實(shí)際上已經(jīng)把板塊評(píng)級(jí)從增持下調(diào)到了減持，具體來說，就是把銅股和銅這一商品本身都下調(diào)到減持。我知道這明顯是一個(gè)逆市場共識(shí)的判斷，而且上周我們也確實(shí)因此收到了投資者很強(qiáng)的反對意見。這里面有幾個(gè)關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)。第一，如果看我們對 2026 年全球精煉銅需求增速的預(yù)測，J.P. Morgan 預(yù)計(jì)大約增長 2.5%。由于去年 9 月和 10 月宣布的一系列非常嚴(yán)重的供應(yīng)擾動(dòng)，我們預(yù)計(jì) 2026 年銅市場仍將處于大約 22 萬噸的缺口狀態(tài)，但到 2027 年會(huì)反轉(zhuǎn)為超過 20 萬噸的過剩。因此，我們確實(shí)認(rèn)為隨著今年下半年推進(jìn)，供給短缺會(huì)開始緩解，市場也會(huì)越來越看到 2027 年新增供給進(jìn)入市場。這意味著，過去六個(gè)月推動(dòng)銅價(jià)上行的那一輪供應(yīng)沖擊，應(yīng)該會(huì)開始減弱。

Dom: The second reason for the downgrade is macro. We think there is a relevant risk of a slowdown in global growth because of higher energy prices, particularly if we were to see a further breakout in oil prices from current levels. We do not think that risk is reflected at all in copper prices or in copper equities. In that sense, we think the risk-reward is asymmetrically negative.

Dom：第二個(gè)下調(diào)的原因來自宏觀層面。我們認(rèn)為，由于能源價(jià)格上行，全球增長放緩的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是切實(shí)存在的，尤其是如果油價(jià)在當(dāng)前位置上再進(jìn)一步突破。我們并不認(rèn)為這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)被銅價(jià)或者銅股充分反映。因此從這個(gè)角度看，我們認(rèn)為當(dāng)前銅的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益比是偏向負(fù)面的，而且是非對稱的負(fù)面。

Dom: One reason copper may have surprised to the upside over the last three weeks is that, although the Middle East is not itself a major copper-producing region, it is hugely important in the sulfuric acid supply chain. Saudi Arabia in particular exports significant volumes of native sulfur to Africa, especially to the Democratic Republic of Congo, for the production of sulfuric acid. This matters for SX-EW copper production. The SX-EW supply base globally is around 3.5 million tons of copper within a 28 million ton market. We think the affected mines, specifically in the DRC and the rest of Africa, represent around 1.7 million tons of global production. So there is a risk that this 1.7 million tons of production may not be able to continue unless those operations can replenish sulfuric acid inventories. However, our view at J.P. Morgan is that this is not an immediate upside risk for copper prices because we believe sulfuric acid inventories at those mines are likely somewhere between four and six months. So we do not think there is an immediate upside shock. Within that time frame, we think the bigger risk is still macro. If you look at recent cyclical downturns triggered by high energy prices, particularly Russia-Ukraine in 2022, copper prices fell by around 30% in the six months after the start of the conflict. In our downside scenario we take copper prices down around 25% from current levels, which would imply something like $9,500 to $10,000 a ton. Given that copper is already near record highs, I do not think that is an especially aggressive downside scenario. I think it is realistic even in a modest global slowdown.

Dom：過去三周銅價(jià)之所以還出現(xiàn)了一些超預(yù)期上行，其中一個(gè)原因是，雖然中東本身并不是主要的銅生產(chǎn)地區(qū)，但它在硫酸供應(yīng)鏈中極其重要。尤其是沙特，會(huì)向非洲、特別是剛果（金）出口大量原硫，用于生產(chǎn)硫酸。而這對于 SX-EW 銅生產(chǎn)至關(guān)重要。全球 SX-EW 銅產(chǎn)量大約為 350 萬噸，而整個(gè)銅市場規(guī)模是 2800 萬噸左右。我們認(rèn)為，受影響的礦山，尤其是剛果（金）及非洲其他地區(qū)的礦山，對應(yīng)的產(chǎn)量大約是全球 170 萬噸。因此，這里確實(shí)存在一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：如果這些礦山無法補(bǔ)充硫酸庫存，那么這 170 萬噸產(chǎn)量可能無法持續(xù)。不過，J.P. Morgan 的判斷是，這還不是銅價(jià)短期立即上沖的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因?yàn)槲覀兿嘈胚@些礦山目前手里的硫酸庫存大概還能維持 4 到 6 個(gè)月。所以我們不認(rèn)為這里會(huì)形成馬上爆發(fā)的供給沖擊。在這個(gè)時(shí)間窗口里，我們認(rèn)為更大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍然是宏觀層面。如果你回看近幾次由高能源價(jià)格引發(fā)的周期性下行，尤其是 2022 年俄烏沖突之后，銅價(jià)在沖突開始后的六個(gè)月里下跌了大約 30%。在我們的下行情景里，我們假設(shè)銅價(jià)從當(dāng)前水平下跌大約 25%，也就是回到每噸 9500 到 10000 美元附近?？紤]到當(dāng)前銅價(jià)本身已經(jīng)接近歷史高位，我不認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)特別激進(jìn)的下行情景，哪怕只是一次溫和的全球增長放緩，這樣的回撤也是現(xiàn)實(shí)的。

Rodolfo: Before we get to follow-up questions on copper, Avery, can you comment on aluminum and more broadly whether there is any impact on demand if we do go into recession?

Rodolfo：在繼續(xù)追問銅之前，Avery，你能先談?wù)勪X嗎？更廣泛一點(diǎn)，如果真的進(jìn)入衰退，需求端會(huì)有什么影響？

Avery: Interestingly, sentiment here in China is slightly different from what we are seeing in the equity market sell-off. Last week we did a marketing trip in Hong Kong, and it was pretty clear that investors were waiting for a pullback. Later in the week and again today, we saw substantial pullbacks across base metals. Some investors were concerned not only about demand growth slowing, but also about whether we will end up with a recession or even a shift in rate expectations from cuts to no cuts, with some clients even asking whether rate hikes are possible next year. So the risk-off sentiment is real. I also think some commodity-focused investors sold base metals in order to fund higher exposure to energy.

Avery：中國這邊的情緒，其實(shí)和股市下跌中呈現(xiàn)出來的感覺略有不同。上周我們在香港做了路演，非常明顯地感覺到，投資者都在等待一次回調(diào)。上周后半段到今天，我們也確實(shí)看到了基本金屬的顯著回落。投資者擔(dān)心的不僅僅是需求增速放緩，還包括是否會(huì)真的走向衰退，以及利率預(yù)期是否會(huì)從“降息”轉(zhuǎn)向“不降息”，甚至有客戶開始問，明年會(huì)不會(huì)反而加息。所以，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好下降是真實(shí)存在的。另外，我也認(rèn)為，一些專注商品的投資者賣出了部分基本金屬倉位，以便騰出資金去加配能源品種。

Avery: But if we look at the commodity side, prices are still hovering at relatively supported levels, with copper around the equivalent of the current elevated range and aluminum also moving higher. If we look at the Middle East impact alone, the region is a net exporter of roughly 5 million tons of aluminum, which accounts for around 7% of global production. That is why we are constructive on aluminum prices. In terms of how to play this, from an equity perspective we are still positive on aluminum names because at current prices these companies are earning record margins, generating low-teens free cash flow yields, and paying fairly high dividends.

Avery：但如果從商品本身看，價(jià)格依然處于相對有支撐的高位，銅維持在當(dāng)前高位區(qū)間附近，鋁也在繼續(xù)走高。如果單看中東這部分影響，中東地區(qū)是大約 500 萬噸鋁的凈出口方，占全球產(chǎn)量的約 7%。這就是為什么我們對鋁價(jià)持建設(shè)性看法。至于該如何交易，從股票角度看，我們?nèi)匀黄娩X股，因?yàn)橐援?dāng)前價(jià)格計(jì)算，這些公司正處在創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的利潤率水平，具備低雙位數(shù)的自由現(xiàn)金流收益率，同時(shí)股息支付率也不低。

Avery: On the demand side, around the Chinese New Year this year, what changed versus last year was not so much destruction of demand, but delay of demand. Downstream fabricators took longer holidays because prices were high. They wanted to sit out the holiday period and then come back and see whether prices would come down. So what we are seeing is delayed buying, not destroyed buying. In aluminum specifically, downstream demand continues to be fairly strong. Producers are trying to sell more slowly than expected and in some cases to hold back contracted volumes in order to benefit from higher spot prices. The market seems more willing to accept higher aluminum prices than higher copper prices. From the copper side, the only real weakness we are seeing is in white goods. Grids, machinery, and EVs are still okay. EVs were a bit slow in the first two months, but the negative momentum stopped. So overall, Chinese market participants are still somewhat optimistic because the share of their goods that has to go through the Strait of Hormuz is much lower than elsewhere, they have captive coal-fired power, they enjoy lower costs, and domestic demand is still reasonably resilient. The area we worry more about is exports if the global economy slips into recession.

Avery：從需求端來看，今年春節(jié)前后與去年最大的不同，并不是需求被破壞了，而是需求被推遲了。由于價(jià)格太高，下游加工企業(yè)普遍放了更長的假。他們想先熬過春節(jié)假期，等回來之后再看價(jià)格會(huì)不會(huì)回落。所以我們看到的是采購延后，而不是采購消失。具體到鋁，下游需求整體仍然相當(dāng)穩(wěn)健。生產(chǎn)商反而在嘗試比預(yù)期更慢地出貨，甚至有些會(huì)把原本已經(jīng)談好的部分量保留下來，以便享受更高的現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格。市場對更高鋁價(jià)的接受度，似乎也高于對更高銅價(jià)的接受度。從銅這邊看，我們目前真正看到的弱點(diǎn)主要在白色家電；而電網(wǎng)、機(jī)械和電動(dòng)車相關(guān)需求仍然還可以。電動(dòng)車前兩個(gè)月確實(shí)偏慢，但負(fù)向動(dòng)能已經(jīng)停住了。所以整體而言，中國市場參與者仍然略偏樂觀，因?yàn)樗麄儽仨毻ㄟ^霍爾木茲海峽運(yùn)輸?shù)纳唐氛急鹊陀谄渌貐^(qū)，他們擁有自備燃煤電力、成本更低，同時(shí)內(nèi)需也還算有韌性。我們更擔(dān)心的是，如果全球經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退，那么出口端會(huì)承壓。

Rodolfo: Dom, we have another question for you. How worried are you about costs and capex overruns for some of the copper players, given the increase we are seeing in heating oil, sulfur, and ammonium nitrate? Do you think some companies are more vulnerable on the cost side?

Rodolfo：Dom，我們這邊還有一個(gè)問題給你?？紤]到取暖油、硫以及硝酸銨等價(jià)格正在上升，你對部分銅企的成本和資本開支超支風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有多擔(dān)心？你覺得哪些公司在成本端會(huì)更脆弱一些？

Dom: This is one of the reasons we downgraded the sector. I think equity markets have done a very good job for a sustained period in rewarding top-line growth, but they have largely ignored costs and even the magnitude of cost inflation we were already seeing before Iran. The starting point is that we do not have perfect information. There is uncertainty around the duration of the conflict. We do not expect a dislocation comparable to Russia-Ukraine, and we do not think it will be a multi-year event. The key question is whether we are talking about weeks or months.

Dom：這確實(shí)也是我們下調(diào)板塊評(píng)級(jí)的原因之一。我認(rèn)為，過去很長一段時(shí)間里，股票市場在獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)收入增長這件事上做得非常充分，但它基本忽略了成本，也忽略了在伊朗局勢升級(jí)之前成本通脹本身就已經(jīng)相當(dāng)可觀。首先要承認(rèn)，我們并沒有完美的信息。圍繞沖突持續(xù)時(shí)間的不確定性仍然存在。我們并不預(yù)計(jì)這會(huì)演變成類似俄烏沖突那樣的長期失序，也不認(rèn)為會(huì)是一個(gè)持續(xù)多年的事件。現(xiàn)在真正的關(guān)鍵問題，是它到底會(huì)持續(xù)幾周，還是幾個(gè)月。

Dom: On the basis that we do not think this will be a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we do not think there will be a structurally sustained impact on costs. However, I do think there will be a short-term impact on first-half numbers for many mining and steel companies. Then the question becomes whether there are supply-chain risks around things like sulfuric acid. In aluminum, one of the key challenges for Middle Eastern smelters right now is actually importing alumina into the smelters, because that material also has to come through the Strait of Hormuz. Alumina inventories at those smelters are rapidly depleting. So there are many moving parts here. We definitely think there is a short-term cost impact. I just do not think it becomes a long-term structural issue for capex or operating costs unless we get a sustained oil premium or a more permanent dislocation of supply chains.

Dom：基于我們不認(rèn)為霍爾木茲海峽會(huì)長期關(guān)閉這一判斷，我們也不認(rèn)為成本會(huì)因此出現(xiàn)結(jié)構(gòu)性的長期上行影響。但我確實(shí)認(rèn)為，短期內(nèi)這會(huì)體現(xiàn)在很多礦業(yè)和鋼鐵公司的上半年業(yè)績數(shù)字上。接下來的問題，就是像硫酸這類供應(yīng)鏈?zhǔn)欠駮?huì)出現(xiàn)進(jìn)一步風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。對于鋁而言，中東冶煉廠當(dāng)前面臨的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵挑戰(zhàn)，其實(shí)是氧化鋁進(jìn)口，因?yàn)檫@些原料同樣需要經(jīng)過霍爾木茲海峽。而這些冶煉廠的氧化鋁庫存正在迅速消耗。所以，里面有很多環(huán)節(jié)都在聯(lián)動(dòng)。我們的確認(rèn)為短期成本沖擊是存在的，只是除非油價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)持續(xù)居高不下，或者供應(yīng)鏈出現(xiàn)更持久的結(jié)構(gòu)性斷裂，否則我不認(rèn)為這會(huì)演變成資本開支或運(yùn)營成本層面的長期結(jié)構(gòu)性問題。

Dom: One other angle that is quite interesting is what this might mean for iron ore. Remember that the quoted iron ore price is on a CFR basis, so the quoted price includes freight. We have not yet seen a massive increase in freight rates more broadly, and the Middle East itself is not hugely relevant for iron ore production, but we have seen a meaningful move higher in Brazilian shipping routes from Brazil to China. One thing that could therefore be quite interesting for first-half numbers is whether this negatively impacts pricing realizations for the iron ore producers because of higher shipping rates.

Dom：還有一個(gè)很有意思的角度，是這對鐵礦石意味著什么。別忘了，市場報(bào)價(jià)的鐵礦石價(jià)格是按 CFR 口徑，也就是包含運(yùn)費(fèi)在內(nèi)的交貨價(jià)格。我們目前還沒有看到全球運(yùn)價(jià)出現(xiàn)全面大幅飆升，而且中東本身也不是鐵礦石生產(chǎn)的重要地區(qū)，但我們已經(jīng)看到了巴西到中國航線的運(yùn)費(fèi)明顯抬升。所以，上半年一個(gè)值得關(guān)注的問題是，更高運(yùn)費(fèi)是否會(huì)通過定價(jià)實(shí)現(xiàn)機(jī)制，反過來壓低鐵礦石生產(chǎn)商的實(shí)際實(shí)現(xiàn)價(jià)格。

Rodolfo: Another follow-up is on PGMs and gold. In the context of war, what is your view there?

Rodolfo：還有一個(gè)追問，是關(guān)于鉑族金屬和黃金。在當(dāng)前戰(zhàn)爭環(huán)境下，你怎么看這些品種？

Dom: Gold is really interesting here. We have written about this before, and the commodity team also wrote on it on Friday. What may have surprised many people is that over the last three weeks gold has actually declined. It has not behaved like a safe haven. To many people that comes as a surprise, but to me it does not, because we have seen this many times before during periods of market stress. In the initial phase of a stress event or market drawdown, such as during the global financial crisis, in 2015-2016, or during COVID in 2020, what often happens is that gold gets used as a funding source as the first wave of risk-off money flows instead into U.S. Treasuries. Historically, gold often falls for six to eight weeks in the initial stress phase, and then after that capital starts flowing back into gold and it begins to display the safe-haven properties investors expect. So in our view, this is actually a really attractive moment to add to gold, either physically or through the equities. Given the worsening fiscal picture, higher geopolitical risk, higher inflation, and bigger pressure on U.S. fiscal deficits because of military spending, I think gold is actually in a pretty sweet spot right now.

Dom：黃金在這里非常有意思。我們之前寫過相關(guān)觀點(diǎn)，商品團(tuán)隊(duì)上周五也發(fā)了一篇報(bào)告。很多人可能會(huì)感到意外的是，過去三周黃金其實(shí)是下跌的，并沒有像典型避險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)那樣上漲。對很多人來說這可能令人驚訝，但對我來說并不意外，因?yàn)檫@種情況在過去的市場壓力期里已經(jīng)發(fā)生過很多次。在壓力事件或市場下跌的初始階段，比如全球金融危機(jī)、2015 到 2016 年那一輪波動(dòng)，或者 2020 年疫情沖擊初期，黃金往往會(huì)被當(dāng)作融資來源來賣出，因?yàn)榈谝徊ū茈U(xiǎn)資金通常更先流向美國國債。從歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)看，黃金在壓力事件初期經(jīng)常會(huì)先跌 6 到 8 周，隨后資金才開始回流黃金，它才逐漸體現(xiàn)出投資者期待中的避險(xiǎn)屬性。所以，在我們看來，現(xiàn)在反而是一個(gè)非常好的加倉時(shí)點(diǎn)，無論是實(shí)物黃金還是黃金股?？紤]到財(cái)政前景惡化、地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)上升、通脹壓力抬升，以及軍費(fèi)開支對美國財(cái)政赤字帶來的額外壓力，我認(rèn)為黃金目前其實(shí)正處在一個(gè)非常有利的位置。

Dom: Platinum and palladium are a different question. Do they behave like precious metals or like industrial metals? For most of the last five years, platinum and palladium have behaved much more like industrial metals. So if we do go into a global slowdown, I think that becomes a bigger drag on platinum and palladium than on gold. Platinum has tried to follow gold and behave like a hybrid precious metal, but in our view gold looks much more attractive than platinum and much more attractive than palladium.

Dom：鉑和鈀就是另外一個(gè)問題了。它們究竟更像貴金屬，還是更像工業(yè)金屬？在過去五年的大部分時(shí)間里，鉑和鈀其實(shí)都更像工業(yè)金屬。因此，如果全球真的走向放緩，我認(rèn)為這種宏觀拖累對鉑和鈀的負(fù)面影響，會(huì)明顯大于對黃金的影響。鉑價(jià)有時(shí)會(huì)試圖跟隨黃金、表現(xiàn)得像一種混合型貴金屬，但在我們的框架里，黃金無論相對鉑還是相對鈀，吸引力都更高。

Rodolfo: Since we are already talking about coverage and commodities, could each of you please go through your top picks at this point? Dom, maybe we can start with your coverage.

Rodolfo：既然我們已經(jīng)聊到了覆蓋板塊和商品觀點(diǎn)，不如請各位也都談?wù)勀壳案髯缘氖走x標(biāo)的。Dom，不如先從你的覆蓋范圍開始。

Dom: In industrial metals, our only overweight is aluminum. Until there is a definitive resolution in the Middle East, the balance of risks for aluminum prices remains to the upside. Remember that if Middle Eastern smelters curtail aluminum production, once you shut a smelter it can take around six months to bring it back. So that is a very asymmetric supply response. We think aluminum can trade toward $4,000 a ton over the next four weeks. Beyond that, on precious metals, we continue to like gold, and for every gold stock we cover in Europe or broader EMEA we are overweight. By contrast, we still think copper has an asymmetric downside risk profile in the current environment, so we are comfortable being underweight copper.

Dom：在工業(yè)金屬里，我們目前唯一的增持方向是鋁。在中東局勢出現(xiàn)明確解決方案之前，鋁價(jià)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)平衡依然偏向上行。要記住一點(diǎn)，如果中東冶煉廠開始減產(chǎn)，一旦電解槽被關(guān)停，通常需要大約六個(gè)月才能重新爬回產(chǎn)能。因此這是一個(gè)極度非對稱的供給反應(yīng)。我們認(rèn)為未來四周鋁價(jià)有望上探每噸 4000 美元。除此之外，在貴金屬方面，我們繼續(xù)看好黃金，而且在歐洲及更廣泛 EMEA 地區(qū)我們所覆蓋的所有黃金股目前都是增持評(píng)級(jí)。相反，在當(dāng)前環(huán)境下，我們?nèi)哉J(rèn)為銅的非對稱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏向下行，因此我們很愿意繼續(xù)維持對銅的減持立場。

Rodolfo: On our side in Latin America, I would split it between steel, copper, iron ore, and gold. On steel, as I mentioned, the name we like best is Gerdau because of the U.S. exposure. On copper, we recently downgraded the two names we cover. Grupo México is now neutral and Southern Copper is underweight, so we do not currently have any overweights among the copper names. On the big miners, Vale remains one of the names we like. The stock has had a nice rally, but we think it deserved it. The company has worked through many of its overhangs, including the Mariana settlement, a management transition, and operational guidance delivery. It also looks like a much more hands-on management team today. The market was more bearish on iron ore going into this year than what we are actually seeing. Vale also has exposure to base metals, especially nickel and copper, and while investors have often worried about that exposure, the recent move in precious metals and by-products also highlights the embedded value of that business. It is not as cheap as it was six months ago, but relative to Australian peers we still see an interesting valuation gap and remain constructive on Vale.

Rodolfo：從我們拉美這邊來看，我會(huì)分成鋼鐵、銅、鐵礦石和黃金幾個(gè)方向來講。鋼鐵方面，正如我剛才提到的，我們最喜歡的仍然是 Gerdau，原因就是它有美國業(yè)務(wù)敞口。銅方面，我們最近把覆蓋的兩家公司都下調(diào)了：Grupo México 現(xiàn)在是中性評(píng)級(jí)，Southern Copper 是減持，所以我們目前在銅股上沒有任何增持推薦。大型礦業(yè)股方面，Vale 仍然是我們偏好的名字之一。股價(jià)已經(jīng)有了一輪不錯(cuò)的上漲，但我們認(rèn)為這是應(yīng)得的。公司已經(jīng)逐步處理掉很多歷史包袱，包括 Mariana 事件和解、管理層更替，以及運(yùn)營指引的兌現(xiàn)。現(xiàn)在看起來，它的管理層執(zhí)行力也比過去更強(qiáng)。市場在進(jìn)入今年時(shí)對鐵礦石過于悲觀，而現(xiàn)實(shí)表現(xiàn)其實(shí)更好。Vale 同時(shí)還有鎳和銅等基本金屬敞口，雖然投資者往往對這部分有所擔(dān)心，但最近貴金屬和副產(chǎn)品的表現(xiàn)，也再次突顯了這塊業(yè)務(wù)內(nèi)含的價(jià)值。它確實(shí)沒有六個(gè)月前那么便宜了，但相對于澳大利亞同業(yè)，我們依然看到估值折價(jià)，因此對 Vale 仍然保持建設(shè)性看法。

Rodolfo: I will also add Aura Minerals, which is our gold exposure in Latin America and another name that we like. We see it as a relatively inexpensive option on growth and free cash flow generation.

Rodolfo：我還會(huì)補(bǔ)充一個(gè)名字，就是 Aura Minerals。這是我們在拉美黃金板塊里的代表性標(biāo)的，也是我們比較喜歡的公司。我們把它看作是一種估值并不貴的增長與自由現(xiàn)金流選擇權(quán)。

Bennett: From the U.S. side, our top picks are really focused on earnings durability and visibility. The first is MP Materials in the rare earth space. It is a flagship deal with the Department of Defense, so it offers probably the best earnings visibility in our coverage universe. We also see upside to that earnings floor as NdPr oxide prices have now moved above the $110 per kilogram floor price embedded in that agreement. The second is Carpenter Technology in specialty alloys. Carpenter is one of only three qualified players making the high-performance nickel alloys that go into the hot section of jet engines. It has strong secular tailwinds from the aero OEM ramp, significant barriers to entry due to the qualification standards, and some investors have been worried that higher oil prices might reduce airline maintenance demand if parts of the fleet are sidelined. But the company has shown before that it can pivot into industrial gas turbine alloy demand if aerospace pauses. More broadly, within copper we remain overweight Freeport, which also has a nice kicker through its Grasberg gold exposure. On aluminum, we upgraded Alcoa from underweight to neutral late last week. We had previously worried that excess smelting capacity would oversupply the market, but those dynamics have clearly changed. Alcoa also sells about one-third of its alumina exposure into the Middle East, including to players like EGA and Alba, so depending on how the situation evolves it may need to redirect some of that volume elsewhere, potentially to China or to traders, or even consider curtailing some refinery capacity. Still, the setup is better than it was before.

Bennett：從美國這邊來看，我們的首選主要聚焦于盈利的持續(xù)性和可見性。第一個(gè)是稀土板塊的 MP Materials。它和美國國防部之間有一項(xiàng)旗艦級(jí)合作，因此在我們覆蓋范圍內(nèi)，它大概是盈利可見性最強(qiáng)的公司之一。隨著氧化鐠釹價(jià)格已經(jīng)高于協(xié)議中每公斤 110 美元的價(jià)格底線，我們也看到它的盈利底部還有上行空間。第二個(gè)是特種合金領(lǐng)域的 Carpenter Technology。Carpenter 是僅有的三家具備資質(zhì)、能夠生產(chǎn)用于航空發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)熱端部位高性能鎳基合金的公司之一。它受益于航空 OEM 的長期爬坡趨勢，同時(shí)因?yàn)檎J(rèn)證標(biāo)準(zhǔn)極高而具備顯著進(jìn)入壁壘。有些投資者近期擔(dān)心，如果油價(jià)太高、部分機(jī)隊(duì)停飛，航空維修需求可能受到影響。但這家公司過去已經(jīng)證明，如果航空需求放緩，它也能夠轉(zhuǎn)向工業(yè)燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)合金需求。更廣泛一點(diǎn)，在銅板塊里，我們?nèi)匀辉龀?Freeport，而它的 Grasberg 黃金敞口也提供了額外加分項(xiàng)。至于鋁，我們在上周晚些時(shí)候把 Alcoa 從減持上調(diào)到了中性。此前我們擔(dān)心過剩電解鋁產(chǎn)能會(huì)讓市場供應(yīng)過剩，但這些動(dòng)態(tài)現(xiàn)在顯然已經(jīng)改變了。Alcoa 大約有三分之一的氧化鋁銷售是面向中東市場，包括 EGA 和 Alba 這樣的客戶，所以視局勢如何演變，公司可能需要將部分銷量重新導(dǎo)向其他地區(qū)，比如中國或者貿(mào)易商，甚至考慮臨時(shí)削減部分氧化鋁產(chǎn)能。盡管如此，當(dāng)前格局相比此前已經(jīng)更好了。

Avery: From our side in Asia, in the very short term we still think aluminum and coal names can outperform, specifically Hongqiao and Chalco. Chalco is interesting at this point because it is also doing M&A. In the past, Chinese companies were constrained by the 45 million ton capacity cap, but Chalco is trying through a JV with Rio to buy aluminum assets in Brazil, so there is also a growth profile there. On top of the aluminum names, we think Zijin Mining is one of the more attractive diversified miners because it has both copper and gold exposure, very visible growth, and we see close to a 10% CAGR over the next three years. For that reason, we think investors can accumulate on dips in higher-quality diversified miners like Zijin.

Avery：從亞洲這邊來看，短期內(nèi)我們依然認(rèn)為鋁和煤炭相關(guān)公司會(huì)跑贏，其中比較明確的是 Hongqiao 和 Chalco。Chalco 當(dāng)前的看點(diǎn)之一還在于它正在做并購。過去中國企業(yè)一直受到 4500 萬噸產(chǎn)能天花板的約束，而 Chalco 正試圖通過與 Rio 的合資平臺(tái)去收購巴西的鋁資產(chǎn)，因此它還有額外的成長性邏輯。除了鋁股之外，我們認(rèn)為紫金礦業(yè)也是更有吸引力的綜合礦商之一，因?yàn)樗瑫r(shí)擁有銅和黃金敞口，增長路徑也非常清晰。我們預(yù)計(jì)未來三年它的復(fù)合增速接近 10%。因此，在我們看來，投資者可以利用回調(diào)去增持像紫金這樣的高質(zhì)量綜合礦業(yè)公司。

Rodolfo: Great. We are already at the top of the hour, so thank you all a lot for participating here with investors as well. Please remember again that we are in the Extel campaign, so please give J.P. Morgan five stars in Metals & Mining, and in Oil & Gas as well if you can. We would very much appreciate your help. Thank you, everyone, and we will speak again next time. Bye.

Rodolfo：很好。我們已經(jīng)到了整點(diǎn)，所以非常感謝各位今天和投資者一起參與這場電話會(huì)。也再次提醒大家，我們現(xiàn)在正處在 Extel 評(píng)選期，如果可以的話，請給 J.P. Morgan 在 Metals & Mining 以及 Oil & Gas 等類別都打五顆星。我們會(huì)非常感謝大家的支持。謝謝各位，我們下次再聊。再見。

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