北京
來(lái)源：財(cái)經(jīng)會(huì)議圈整理
加拿大華裔學(xué)者江學(xué)勤（Professor Cien）地緣政治分析師、教育家，其YouTube頻道 “預(yù)測(cè)歷史”（Predictive History）因2024年精準(zhǔn)預(yù)言 “特朗普勝選”“美國(guó)對(duì)伊朗開(kāi)戰(zhàn)””美國(guó)會(huì)輸?shù)暨@場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)” 而走紅，最新對(duì)美伊戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)得研判。
這篇內(nèi)容的核心觀點(diǎn)概括：
美國(guó)與以色列對(duì)伊朗發(fā)動(dòng)軍事打擊并“斬首”其最高領(lǐng)袖，在伊朗什葉派文化中被視為殉道，會(huì)激發(fā)全民圣戰(zhàn)式抵抗，而非屈服。
伊朗通過(guò)無(wú)人機(jī)、導(dǎo)彈、封鎖霍爾木茲海峽攻擊海灣國(guó)家（GCC）的軍事基地、油田與海水淡化廠，直擊其經(jīng)濟(jì)與生存命脈，不對(duì)稱戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)讓美國(guó)難以防御。
海灣國(guó)家（如迪拜、巴林）因依賴美國(guó)保護(hù)、缺乏安全與自給能力，將在沖突中經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰、失去國(guó)際地位。
美國(guó)的戰(zhàn)略是利用伊朗水資源短缺與民族矛盾，試圖分裂瓦解伊朗；伊朗則試圖發(fā)動(dòng)全球什葉派起義，推翻美國(guó)在中東的霸權(quán)體系。
這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)會(huì)動(dòng)搖石油美元基礎(chǔ)，沖擊全球經(jīng)濟(jì)，甚至可能把歐洲、俄羅斯、中國(guó)卷入，演變?yōu)?/strong>世界大戰(zhàn)。
結(jié)論：這場(chǎng)沖突將徹底改寫世界格局，戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)會(huì)長(zhǎng)期化，戰(zhàn)后世界完全不同。
中文（通順版）
我希望大家都做好準(zhǔn)備，因?yàn)槭澜缫呀?jīng)走到一個(gè)臨界點(diǎn)。美國(guó)和以色列已經(jīng)開(kāi)始襲擊伊朗，現(xiàn)在戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)進(jìn)入第四天。我們可以預(yù)計(jì)，這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)會(huì)持續(xù)數(shù)周，甚至可能持續(xù)數(shù)年。但我可以向你們保證，這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)結(jié)束后，世界將徹底改變。
在接下來(lái)幾周里，我們會(huì)用博弈論來(lái)分析和理解當(dāng)前的地緣政治局勢(shì)。我會(huì)教你們理論、思路和分析方法，讓你們看懂周圍正在發(fā)生的一切，并做出預(yù)測(cè)。我們的分析是否正確，很快就能得到驗(yàn)證，因?yàn)檫@一切都在實(shí)時(shí)發(fā)生，我們可以直接用現(xiàn)實(shí)來(lái)檢驗(yàn)。
好，我們先梳理一下到目前為止的基本事實(shí)：
周六凌晨，在伊朗，美軍對(duì)伊朗最高領(lǐng)袖哈梅內(nèi)伊發(fā)動(dòng)了“斬首行動(dòng)”。
關(guān)于當(dāng)時(shí)到底發(fā)生了什么，各方存在爭(zhēng)議。美方稱，他們掌握了確切情報(bào)，知道領(lǐng)袖的位置，于是派出飛機(jī)轟炸了一處地點(diǎn)。他們還聲稱，情報(bào)人員確認(rèn)了死者遺體，并隨后公布了消息。
起初伊朗方面否認(rèn)此事，堅(jiān)稱領(lǐng)袖仍然活著，但最終官方媒體承認(rèn)他在空襲中身亡。
但伊朗方面同時(shí)表示：這位領(lǐng)袖已經(jīng)86歲，他是主動(dòng)選擇犧牲——他本來(lái)可以前往莫斯科，但他選擇留在德黑蘭，為他的人民殉道。
不僅如此，他的多名親屬也一同遇難，包括女兒、兒子、孫輩，整個(gè)家族的很多人都在這次襲擊中死亡。另有報(bào)道稱，他本身已身患前列腺癌，本來(lái)也時(shí)日無(wú)多。
你們首先要明白的是：
盡管美國(guó)和以色列宣稱成功“斬首”了伊朗領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層，但在伊朗人看來(lái)，這是殉道，是圣徒之死。
伊朗人信仰的是伊斯蘭教什葉派，不同于遜尼派。
遜尼派占全球穆斯林約90%，什葉派一直是少數(shù)派，長(zhǎng)期遭受迫害。
在什葉派信仰中，最核心、最能凝聚人心、賦予生命意義、驅(qū)動(dòng)人們行動(dòng)的價(jià)值，就是殉道精神——為信仰獻(xiàn)身，為大義犧牲自我。
所以你們要理解：哈梅內(nèi)伊的死，在伊朗人眼中是主動(dòng)犧牲，目的是激勵(lì)整個(gè)國(guó)家投入這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
這不是一場(chǎng)普通戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，不是經(jīng)濟(jì)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，不是抵抗戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)——這是圣戰(zhàn)。
他們要為領(lǐng)袖向“大撒旦”復(fù)仇，他們會(huì)戰(zhàn)斗到底。
這是第一點(diǎn)。
第二點(diǎn)：
就在領(lǐng)袖遇襲當(dāng)天早上，以色列襲擊了德黑蘭南部一所學(xué)校，造成約150名小學(xué)生死亡，大多是女童。
對(duì)此各方同樣說(shuō)法不一：
以色列方面稱，首先，這所學(xué)校緊鄰軍事基地；其次，炸到學(xué)校的不是以方，而是伊朗防空導(dǎo)彈失控誤擊。
但伊朗堅(jiān)稱，以色列是故意轟炸學(xué)校，屠殺兒童。
你們可能會(huì)問(wèn)：以色列為什么要這么做？
但看看過(guò)去幾年他們?cè)诩由场⒃诎屠账固箤?duì)平民的所作所為，邏輯是一致的。
對(duì)伊朗而言，這次襲擊的意義在于：
向本國(guó)人民、向全世界表明——我們已經(jīng)無(wú)路可退，我們已經(jīng)做出犧牲，我們將不惜一切代價(jià)打贏這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
這一事件也徹底點(diǎn)燃了伊朗民眾全力抵抗的決心。
我再?gòu)?qiáng)調(diào)一遍：我們目前沒(méi)有100%完整證據(jù)證明是以色列所為，但從他們過(guò)去的行為模式來(lái)看，這非常符合一貫邏輯，我們可以據(jù)此做出判斷。至于他們?yōu)槭裁催@么做、目的是什么，我們后面會(huì)繼續(xù)分析。局勢(shì)非常復(fù)雜。
接下來(lái)我給你們看一個(gè)地方：迪拜。
迪拜一直被認(rèn)為是全球最富有、最安全的城市之一，成千上萬(wàn)的西方人移居迪拜，因?yàn)檫@里干凈、低稅、收入高、餐飲發(fā)達(dá)。
迪拜是海灣合作委員會(huì)（GCC）國(guó)家之一。
長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，迪拜的日子很好過(guò)，因?yàn)樗幱诿绹?guó)保護(hù)之下，不用花大錢搞國(guó)防；又身處世界石油中心，所以專注發(fā)展航空、物流、金融、旅游，變得極其富裕。
阿聯(lián)酋航空是全球最好的航空公司之一，迪拜機(jī)場(chǎng)是全球最繁忙的機(jī)場(chǎng)。
迪拜一直宣稱自己是“中東瑞士”，保持中立，不卷入任何戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，只想保障公民安全、安心賺錢。
但戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)爆發(fā)后，伊朗襲擊了海灣合作委員會(huì)國(guó)家——
迪拜、卡塔爾、科威特……
這些國(guó)家都懵了：我們是中立國(guó)，我們沒(méi)參戰(zhàn)啊！
迪拜機(jī)場(chǎng)一度全面關(guān)閉。
當(dāng)時(shí)迪拜的富人愿意支付2.6萬(wàn)美元，只為買一張機(jī)票逃離。
現(xiàn)實(shí)是：
迪拜長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)的核心賣點(diǎn)就是“安全”，如今這個(gè)標(biāo)簽已經(jīng)徹底失效。
長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，迪拜已經(jīng)“死了”。
一個(gè)富有的西方人，不會(huì)再搬到一個(gè)隨時(shí)可能遭伊朗襲擊的地方。
他們會(huì)去新加坡、中國(guó)香港、日本、南美，但不會(huì)再來(lái)迪拜。
關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題是：伊朗為什么要這么做？
明明是美國(guó)和以色列在打伊朗，伊朗為什么要襲擊海灣合作委員會(huì)國(guó)家？
簡(jiǎn)單直接的答案：
這些國(guó)家雖然宣稱中立，卻允許美軍駐扎，允許美國(guó)和以色列使用其領(lǐng)空襲擊伊朗。
還有一個(gè)地方非常關(guān)鍵：巴林。
你們一定要記住，巴林會(huì)成為這次沖突的核心之一。
這里是美國(guó)第五艦隊(duì)總部，是美國(guó)在中東的海軍基地。
伊朗已經(jīng)開(kāi)始用導(dǎo)彈襲擊這里，基地遭到重創(chuàng)。
巴林的特殊之處在于：
國(guó)內(nèi)約50%甚至更多人口是什葉派（和伊朗人信仰相同），但掌權(quán)者是遜尼派。
所以伊朗襲擊的意義非常深遠(yuǎn)：
第一，打擊美國(guó)軍事資產(chǎn)；
第二，摧毀海灣國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)；
第三，點(diǎn)燃宗教戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
對(duì)于什葉派信徒而言，領(lǐng)袖殉道后，向敵人發(fā)起圣戰(zhàn)就是宗教義務(wù)。
這就像如果有人刺殺教皇，全球天主教徒都會(huì)極度憤怒，甚至想要復(fù)仇。
現(xiàn)在，什葉派民眾正在各地覺(jué)醒，巴林很可能會(huì)成為第一個(gè)發(fā)生革命、政權(quán)倒臺(tái)的國(guó)家。
迪拜則可能走向破產(chǎn)。
長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，整個(gè)海灣合作委員會(huì)地區(qū)都可能崩潰。
我們會(huì)用博弈論來(lái)詳細(xì)分析這一切。
繼續(xù)講。
我們可以從地理上看清這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)將如何發(fā)展。
有一個(gè)地方非常關(guān)鍵，寬度只有大約33公里，窄到甚至可以游過(guò)去——
它就是霍爾木茲海峽。
它之所以重要，因?yàn)樗?b>世界的樞紐。
全球約20%的石油從這里經(jīng)過(guò)，流向亞洲、印度、巴基斯坦、韓國(guó)、中國(guó)、日本。
日本85%的石油依賴這里。
日本官方曾表示：一旦霍爾木茲海峽被封鎖，日本國(guó)內(nèi)石油只夠維持8—9個(gè)月，之后整個(gè)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)崩潰。
而伊朗現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)具備封鎖霍爾木茲海峽的能力。
這意味著未來(lái)幾個(gè)月，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)都將遭受巨大沖擊。
第二點(diǎn)：
海灣國(guó)家向世界輸送石油，換來(lái)的是什么？
是糧食。
很多人沒(méi)意識(shí)到：海灣國(guó)家是美國(guó)帝國(guó)體系的關(guān)鍵支柱，而這個(gè)體系的基礎(chǔ)是石油美元。
美元本身沒(méi)有內(nèi)在價(jià)值，它的價(jià)值來(lái)自全球石油交易必須用美元結(jié)算。
一旦這個(gè)體系崩塌，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和美國(guó)帝國(guó)將一同崩潰。
問(wèn)題在于：海灣國(guó)家是人為制造的“帝國(guó)產(chǎn)物”，本身沒(méi)有生存基礎(chǔ)——
沒(méi)有糧食、沒(méi)有石油、沒(méi)有淡水。
這些城市能容納數(shù)百萬(wàn)人口，完全靠石油美元支撐。
一旦霍爾木茲海峽被封鎖，糧食運(yùn)不進(jìn)來(lái)，這些國(guó)家立刻陷入絕境。
海灣國(guó)家80%的糧食依賴進(jìn)口，幾乎無(wú)法自給。
所以，霍爾木茲海峽是死穴。
伊朗只要封鎖這里，就能扼住全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的咽喉，最終讓美國(guó)帝國(guó)破產(chǎn)。
第二個(gè)地理關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)：伊朗高原。
伊朗多山，德黑蘭在山區(qū)，海灣國(guó)家在平坦沙漠。
山區(qū)的優(yōu)勢(shì)是：可以輕松隱藏火箭基地、無(wú)人機(jī)基地、導(dǎo)彈基地。
這就是伊朗的整體進(jìn)攻戰(zhàn)略：
依托山地，隱蔽部署，隨時(shí)襲擊海灣國(guó)家。
他們主要打擊三類目標(biāo)：
美國(guó)軍事基地——根本防不住
石油能源設(shè)施——一炸就廢，幾乎無(wú)法防御
供水系統(tǒng)——這是最致命的
海灣國(guó)家極度缺乏淡水，60%的用水來(lái)自海水淡化廠。
而用無(wú)人機(jī)炸毀海水淡化廠，極其容易。
于是出現(xiàn)了一個(gè)極度不對(duì)稱的局面：
伊朗是山地堡壘，進(jìn)攻力量可以完美隱蔽；
海灣國(guó)家是平坦沙漠，完全暴露在打擊之下，幾乎毫無(wú)還手之力。
伊朗隨時(shí)可以摧毀整個(gè)海灣地區(qū)，而外界幾乎無(wú)力阻止。
但伊朗自身也有致命弱點(diǎn)：水危機(jī)。
伊朗長(zhǎng)期干旱，受氣候變化影響嚴(yán)重。
美國(guó)和以色列的戰(zhàn)略之一，就是摧毀伊朗的供水系統(tǒng)——水壩、水庫(kù)、發(fā)電廠。
目的是讓伊朗不再宜居，引發(fā)民眾反抗，或造成大規(guī)模難民潮涌入伊拉克。
從地圖上你們就能看出來(lái)：
這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，就是世界末日級(jí)別的對(duì)抗。
雙方都有能力徹底摧毀對(duì)方，只是看愿意走多遠(yuǎn)。
這幾乎就是一場(chǎng)膽小鬼博弈：
我可以炸平你，你也可以炸平我，看誰(shuí)先退縮。
問(wèn)題在于：
伊朗人是什葉派，信仰殉道精神，最高領(lǐng)袖被殺，他們?cè)敢庾叩脴O遠(yuǎn)。
而海灣國(guó)家的人更物質(zhì)、更愛(ài)錢，且人口中外籍勞工占極高比例——迪拜外籍人口超過(guò)90%。
一旦局勢(shì)惡化，他們會(huì)第一時(shí)間逃跑。
這根本不是對(duì)等的較量。
現(xiàn)在外界最關(guān)心的三大問(wèn)題：
美國(guó)會(huì)不會(huì)派地面部隊(duì)？
要徹底擊敗伊朗，唯一辦法就是地面入侵，但這需要幾十萬(wàn)甚至上百萬(wàn)兵力。
美國(guó)會(huì)不會(huì)動(dòng)用核武器？
一旦戰(zhàn)敗，會(huì)不會(huì)選擇核戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)？
哪些國(guó)家會(huì)卷入？
局勢(shì)已經(jīng)極度危險(xiǎn)，德國(guó)、法國(guó)、英國(guó)都在討論參戰(zhàn)。
一旦歐洲參戰(zhàn)，俄羅斯和中國(guó)也可能站在伊朗一方介入。
這就會(huì)變成世界大戰(zhàn)。
因?yàn)橹袞|、因?yàn)榛魻柲酒澓{太重要，全球大國(guó)最終都無(wú)法置身事外。
我們會(huì)用博弈論一步步分析戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)現(xiàn)實(shí)與未來(lái)走向。
繼續(xù)講。
美國(guó)在中東遍布軍事基地，最初設(shè)立的目的，是保護(hù)那些由英美帝國(guó)扶持的君主政權(quán)，壓制當(dāng)?shù)孛癖姟?/p>
這些基地名義上是防衛(wèi)，實(shí)際上根本無(wú)法有效防御伊朗的襲擊。
原因很簡(jiǎn)單：
美軍的建軍思路源于冷戰(zhàn)，冷戰(zhàn)的核心是“相互確保毀滅”（MAD），雙方都有核武器，不敢真打。
所以美軍的設(shè)計(jì)思路不是為了打贏一場(chǎng)不對(duì)稱戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，而是為了展示威懾、彰顯霸權(quán)。
帝國(guó)的本質(zhì)，就是一種幻覺(jué)、威懾光環(huán)。
你害怕它，你就服從它；
但它未必真的適合打一場(chǎng)現(xiàn)代戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
這就是現(xiàn)在荒謬的現(xiàn)實(shí)：
美軍基地遍布海灣，反而給了伊朗完美的襲擊目標(biāo)。
伊朗只要打擊這些基地，就能癱瘓海灣經(jīng)濟(jì)，進(jìn)而摧毀美國(guó)帝國(guó)體系。
簡(jiǎn)單總結(jié)戰(zhàn)局：
紅色代表美國(guó)和以色列，主攻德黑蘭，試圖用“震懾與敬畏”戰(zhàn)略，斬首高層，讓對(duì)方群龍無(wú)首、不戰(zhàn)自潰。
黃色代表伊朗，全面反擊，目標(biāo)是巴林、卡塔爾等地，制造混亂、摧毀經(jīng)濟(jì)、動(dòng)搖政權(quán)。
但伊朗把這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)定義為全面圣戰(zhàn)，指揮體系早已去中心化，沒(méi)有單一命令中心。
即便最高領(lǐng)袖身亡，各地區(qū)仍會(huì)按既定計(jì)劃戰(zhàn)斗。
所以美國(guó)“斬首即勝利”的軍事理論，在伊朗完全失效。
更諷刺的是：
伊朗城市里受過(guò)教育、思想進(jìn)步、最可能支持西方制度的人，反而在美軍轟炸中受害；
而最堅(jiān)定、最激進(jìn)、最愿意圣戰(zhàn)到底的，是農(nóng)村地區(qū)的什葉派武裝人員。
美國(guó)正在親手消滅最可能親近自己的人，留下最堅(jiān)決的敵人。
接下來(lái)我要講一個(gè)關(guān)鍵概念：不對(duì)稱戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
意思是：雙方打的不是同一種戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，用的不是同一套打法，因?yàn)閷?shí)力差距巨大。
美國(guó)是超級(jí)帝國(guó)，資源無(wú)限、美元霸權(quán)、控制全球；
伊朗被制裁長(zhǎng)達(dá)45年，貧窮、技術(shù)有限。
但你們要明白：
越貧窮、被壓迫的國(guó)家，往往戰(zhàn)斗意志越強(qiáng)、越團(tuán)結(jié)、越有凝聚力。
伊朗的核心武器是沙赫德無(wú)人機(jī)：
單價(jià)僅約5萬(wàn)美元，低成本版甚至3.5萬(wàn)美元
可以輕松裝在卡車上，在伊拉克等地任意部署、隱蔽發(fā)射
伊朗日產(chǎn)可達(dá)500架，現(xiàn)有庫(kù)存約8萬(wàn)架
一架就能摧毀海水淡化廠、油田、酒店，造成巨大破壞
美國(guó)如何防御？
用“末段高空區(qū)域防御系統(tǒng)”（THAAD，薩德）、“愛(ài)國(guó)者導(dǎo)彈”。
一枚攔截導(dǎo)彈價(jià)格約100萬(wàn)美元。
用100萬(wàn)美元的導(dǎo)彈，去打5萬(wàn)美元的無(wú)人機(jī)，
而且經(jīng)常需要發(fā)射2—3枚才能成功攔截。
這在經(jīng)濟(jì)上完全不成立。
更麻煩的是：
反導(dǎo)系統(tǒng)體積大、移動(dòng)慢、位置固定，很容易被伊朗發(fā)現(xiàn)并摧毀。
一旦被炸，就是巨額損失。
你們會(huì)問(wèn)：
伊朗用無(wú)人機(jī)已經(jīng)十幾年，俄烏沖突也大量使用無(wú)人機(jī)，
美國(guó)為什么不吸取教訓(xùn)、不做好準(zhǔn)備？
答案就是：軍事教條+腐敗。
軍事教條決定戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)方式、官僚體系、軍費(fèi)分配。
美軍習(xí)慣了冷戰(zhàn)模式：秀肌肉、威懾、不真打。
他們的武器設(shè)計(jì)目的是嚇人、讓人印象深刻，而不是打贏現(xiàn)代戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。
成本極高，效果有限，缺乏韌性與創(chuàng)新。
更核心的是腐敗：
美國(guó)軍工復(fù)合體不在乎輸贏，只在乎盡可能花錢，從中分利。
這就是美軍今天陷入困境的根本原因。
還有一個(gè)很少被討論、但至關(guān)重要的問(wèn)題：水危機(jī)。
我給你們看一張世界水資源壓力地圖：
100%意味著用水量等于環(huán)境可再生量，超過(guò)100%就是不可持續(xù)。
中東地區(qū)的數(shù)據(jù)極其恐怖：
伊朗：72%（已經(jīng)很高）
巴林：近4000%
迪拜：17000%
這意味著：
伊朗甚至不用殺傷美軍、不用摧毀軍事基地，
只要炸毀海水淡化廠，海灣國(guó)家就會(huì)自行崩潰。
當(dāng)然，伊朗自身72%的水資源壓力也非常危險(xiǎn)。
雖然伊朗能更快摧毀海灣，但美國(guó)和以色列也可以瞄準(zhǔn)伊朗的水系統(tǒng)反擊。
我再給你們看一個(gè)例子：伊朗北部的烏爾米耶湖。
它曾是世界第六大咸水湖。
1984年時(shí)湖面廣闊；
20年后，幾乎完全干涸，人可以直接步行穿過(guò)。
這就是伊朗水危機(jī)的嚴(yán)重程度。
這也是美國(guó)和以色列準(zhǔn)備攻擊的核心弱點(diǎn)：切斷伊朗淡水供應(yīng)，制造國(guó)家災(zāi)難。
伊朗第二個(gè)致命弱點(diǎn)：民族結(jié)構(gòu)。
伊朗是多民族國(guó)家，中部是波斯人，周邊還有十幾個(gè)民族群體。
邊境地區(qū)的族群，往往與鄰國(guó)更親近，而非伊朗中央。
所以美國(guó)的長(zhǎng)期戰(zhàn)略非常清晰：
第一步：摧毀伊朗的供水系統(tǒng)
第二步：分裂伊朗，按民族劃分為多個(gè)區(qū)塊
第三步：讓它們?yōu)樗椿ハ酄?zhēng)斗
這就是美國(guó)的終極計(jì)劃：
徹底瓦解伊朗這個(gè)統(tǒng)一國(guó)家，讓波斯地區(qū)衰落，
由美國(guó)扶持各個(gè)分裂勢(shì)力，提供資金、武器、政治支持，
讓它們?yōu)樗从谰脙?nèi)戰(zhàn)。
這樣一來(lái)，伊朗就永遠(yuǎn)不再構(gòu)成威脅。
這是一個(gè)非常邪惡的計(jì)劃，所以美國(guó)永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)公開(kāi)承認(rèn)。
但從水資源分布圖、民族分布圖，就能清晰看出這套戰(zhàn)略。
那么伊朗如何反擊？
答案是：發(fā)動(dòng)全球什葉派起義。
全球穆斯林中，遜尼派約占90%（淺綠色），什葉派是少數(shù)（深綠色），主要集中在伊朗，但遍布全球。
伊朗的第一層戰(zhàn)略：
發(fā)動(dòng)全球什葉派的圣戰(zhàn)起義，反抗美國(guó)帝國(guó)。
這已經(jīng)在發(fā)生：
巴基斯坦的什葉派沖擊美國(guó)使館；
伊拉克的美國(guó)使館持續(xù)遭襲；
多地美國(guó)外交目標(biāo)都受到攻擊。
領(lǐng)袖殉道后，復(fù)仇成為宗教義務(wù)，這場(chǎng)起義會(huì)長(zhǎng)期持續(xù)。
伊朗的第二層戰(zhàn)略：
團(tuán)結(jié)整個(gè)伊斯蘭世界。
目前大多數(shù)伊斯蘭國(guó)家的政權(quán)都是獨(dú)裁、不得民心，只是依靠美國(guó)帝國(guó)支持才能維持，比如沙特、埃及、阿爾及利亞等。
一旦民眾推翻這些親美政權(quán)，伊朗就會(huì)成為整個(gè)伊斯蘭世界的領(lǐng)袖，而不只是什葉派領(lǐng)袖。
這就是伊朗的終極目標(biāo)：建立伊斯蘭共同體。
總結(jié)一下：
美國(guó)/以色列的計(jì)劃：分裂伊朗、制造水源沖突、永久削弱伊朗
伊朗的計(jì)劃：發(fā)動(dòng)宗教圣戰(zhàn)、團(tuán)結(jié)什葉派、推翻美國(guó)帝國(guó)體系、建立伊斯蘭共同體
而所有博弈的核心，就是海灣合作委員會(huì)國(guó)家，因?yàn)樗鼈兪?b>美國(guó)帝國(guó)的命門。
海灣國(guó)家賣石油換取美元，再把美元投入美國(guó)股市。
從2012年至今，這類投資規(guī)模爆炸式增長(zhǎng)。
美國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)是它們?yōu)閿?shù)不多的安全投資渠道。
伊朗的邏輯非常直接：
切斷石油通道→海灣國(guó)家無(wú)法再積累美元→無(wú)法繼續(xù)投資美國(guó)股市→美國(guó)股市崩盤→美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條
美國(guó)股市約四分之一的增長(zhǎng)，靠幾家巨型科技公司支撐：微軟、谷歌、蘋果等AI巨頭。
而這些公司正是海灣國(guó)家的重點(diǎn)投資對(duì)象。
一旦海灣資金撤離，這些公司市值暴跌，美國(guó)將陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條。
今天這節(jié)課，只是整體概覽。
內(nèi)容很多、信息量很大，接下來(lái)幾周我們會(huì)逐一深入拆解，讓你們真正看懂這場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的本質(zhì)。
還有問(wèn)題嗎？
關(guān)于今天講的內(nèi)容，有任何疑問(wèn)都可以提。
English (Polished & Natural)
I hope everyone is prepared, because we have reached a breaking point in the world.
The United States and Israel have started attacking Iran, and we are now in the fourth day of this war.
We can expect this war to last for many weeks, possibly even many years.
But I promise you: once this war is over, the world will never be the same.
Over the next few weeks, we will use game theory to understand and analyze the geopolitical situation.
I will teach you the ideas, theories, and techniques to make sense of the world around you and to make predictions.
We will know if our analysis is correct, because all of this is happening in real time, and we can test it against reality.
All right, let’s go over some basic facts so far.
Early Saturday morning in Iran, the United States launched a decapitation strike against Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran.
There is dispute over exactly what happened.
The U.S. claimed they had reliable intelligence on his location, so they sent aircraft to bomb a compound.
They also claimed their operatives confirmed the body and later announced his death.
At first, Iran denied it and insisted he was still alive.
Eventually, however, state media admitted he had been killed in the airstrike.
But Iran also stated that the Ayatollah was 86 years old
andchose martyrdom.
He could have gone to Moscow, but he chose to stay in Tehran and die for his people.
Not only that: many of his family members were also killed —
his daughter, son, grandchildren.
Much of his family died in this attack.
There have also been reports he had prostate cancer and did not have long to live anyway.
The first thing you need to understand is this:
Even though the U.S. and Israel claim a successful decapitation of Iran’s leadership,
from Iran’s perspective, this is martyrdom.
Iranians follow Shia Islam, which is different from Sunni Islam.
Sunnis make up about 90% of the world’s Muslims.
Shia have always been the minority and have long been persecuted.
In Shia faith, the core value that unites people, gives meaning to life, and drives them into action ismartyrdom—
the idea of sacrificing yourself for your religion, for a greater cause.
So understand this:
the death of the Ayatollah is seen in Iran as avoluntary sacrifice,
intended to motivate the entire nation in this war.
This is not a typical war.
It is not an economic war.
It is not a war of resistance.
This is ajihad, a holy war.
They will seek vengeance against what they call the “Great Satan” for their leader,
and they will fight to the death.
That’s point number one.
Point number two:
On the same morning the Ayatollah was killed,
Israel struck a school in southern Tehran,
killing about 150 schoolchildren, mostly young girls.
Again, there are competing narratives.
Israel claimed, first, that the school was next to a military base;
second, that it was not them but an Iranian air defense missile that went off course and hit the school.
Iran insists Israeldeliberately targeted the school to kill children.
You might ask: Why would Israel do such a thing?
But if you look at what they have done in Gaza, in Palestine, against civilians over the years,
this pattern is consistent.
For Iran, this attack serves a purpose:
to show their own people and the world that they have nothing left to lose,
that they have made the ultimate sacrifice,
and that they are committed to winning this war at all costs.
It has also fully mobilized the Iranian people to resist with all their strength.
Again, we do not have complete proof Israel did this.
But based on their past actions, this fits their pattern,
so we can reasonably assume this is what happened.
Why they did it and what their goal is — we will discuss that later.
The situation is extremely complex.
Now I want to show you another place:Dubai.
Dubai has long been considered one of the richest and safest cities in the world.
Tens of thousands of Westerners move there because it’s clean, low-tax, high-income, with great restaurants.
Dubai is part of the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC.
For a long time, Dubai had an excellent deal:
it was under U.S. protection, so it didn’t have to spend much on defense.
It was in the middle of the world’s oil center,
so it focused on aviation, logistics, finance, tourism — and became extremely wealthy.
Emirates is one of the best airlines in the world.
Dubai International Airport is the busiest in the world.
Dubai long portrayed itself as the “Switzerland of the Middle East”:
neutral, not involved in any wars, just keeping citizens safe and making money.
But once the war started,
Iran attacked GCC countries:
Dubai, Qatar, Kuwait…
These countries were shocked:
We’re neutral! We’re not part of this war!
Dubai’s airport was shut down at one point.
Wealthy people in Dubai were willing to pay$26,000just to get on a plane and leave.
The reality is:
Dubai’s entire brand was built on being “safe.”
That brand is now dead.
Long-term, Dubai is finished.
Wealthy Westerners will not move to a place that can be attacked by Iran at any moment.
They will go to Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, South America — not Dubai.
The big question:
Why is Iran doing this?
The U.S. and Israel are the ones attacking Iran,
so why is Iran targeting the GCC?
The short, direct answer:
These countries pretend to be neutral,
but theyhost U.S. military forces
and allow the U.S. and Israel to use their airspace to attack Iran.
Another extremely important place:Bahrain.
You must remember this:
Bahrain will be one of the major centers of this conflict.
It is the headquarters of theU.S. Fifth Fleet,
the main U.S. naval base in the Middle East.
Iran is already attacking it with missiles, and it has been badly damaged.
What makes Bahrain unique is that
about 50% or more of its population is Shia — the same religion as Iranians —
but the country is ruled by Sunnis.
So the strikes against Bahrain serve several huge purposes:
To attack U.S. military assets
To destroy the economies of Gulf states
To ignite a religious war
For Shia Muslims,
after the death of their leader,
waging jihad against his killers becomes a religious obligation.
It’s no different from other religions:
if someone assassinated the Pope, Catholics around the world would be enraged and want vengeance.
Right now, Shia populations are rising up everywhere.
Bahrain will likely be the first regime to fall.
Dubai will probably go bankrupt.
Long-term, we can expect the entire GCC region to collapse.
We will analyze all of this using game theory.
Let’s continue.
We can understand how this war will unfold just by looking at the geography.
There is a tiny area, only about 33 kilometers wide —
narrow enough that you could swim across it.
It is called theStrait of Hormuz.
It is important because it is thecenter of the world,
the pivot point of the global economy.
About 20% of the world’s oil flows through this narrow strait,
going to Asia, India, Pakistan, South Korea, China, Japan.
Japan relies on this region for about 85% of its oil.
Japan has stated that if the Strait of Hormuz were blocked,
it would only have enough oil for about 8 to 9 months,
after which the entire Japanese economy would collapse.
Iran now has the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz.
That means the global economy will suffer greatly over the next few months.
Second point:
What do GCC countries get in return for sending oil to the world?
Food.
Many people don’t appreciate this:
the GCC is the linchpin of the American empire,
and the foundation of that empire is thepetrodollar.
The U.S. dollar has no intrinsic value.
Its value comes from the fact that global oil trade is done in U.S. dollars.
If that system collapses,
the U.S. economy and the American empire both collapse at the same time.
The problem is:
GCC countries are an artificial construct of the empire.
They cannot survive naturally —
no food, no sustainable water, no real self-sufficiency.
These cities support millions of people only because petrodollars flow in.
If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, food cannot come in,
and these countries immediately face catastrophe.
Eighty percent of all food consumed in the GCC is imported.
They can barely feed themselves.
So the Strait of Hormuz is the ultimate pressure point.
By closing it, Iran can strangle the global economy
and eventually bankrupt the American empire.
The second geographic key:the Iranian plateau.
Iran is mountainous. Tehran is in the mountains.
The GCC countries are flat desert.
Mountains allow Iran to easily hide rocket bases, drone bases, missile sites.
This is Iran’s entire offensive strategy:
use the mountains as a fortress, hide its weapons, and strike the GCC at will.
Iran targets three main things:
U.S. military bases — which are almost impossible to defend
Oil and energy facilities — very easy to destroy
Water supplies — the most vulnerable target of all
GCC countries have very little access to freshwater.
About 60% of their water comes fromdesalination plants.
Blowing up these plants with drones is extremely easy.
So we have an absurdly asymmetric situation:
Iran is a mountain fortress where offensive weapons can be perfectly hidden;
the GCC is flat desert, completely exposed to attack, with almost no way to defend itself.
Iran could destroy the entire GCC at any moment,
and there is very little the world can do about it.
But Iran also has a critical weakness:a water crisis.
Iran has suffered from drought for years, worsened by climate change.
One of the U.S. and Israel’s strategies is to destroy Iran’s water infrastructure —
dams, reservoirs, power plants.
The goal is to make Iran unlivable,
trigger a popular uprising against the government,
or create a massive refugee crisis into Iraq.
From the map, you can see:
this war is truly anend-of-the-world scenario.
Both sides have the capacity to destroy each other completely.
It is just a question of how far they are willing to go.
This is essentially agame of chicken:
I can blow you up, you can blow me up — who blinks first?
The problem is:
Iranians are Shia Muslims who believe in martyrdom.
Their supreme leader has been killed.
They are willing to go to extremes.
People in the GCC are more materialistic, care more about money,
and most of the population is foreign —
over 90% of Dubai’s population is foreign-born.
If things get dangerous, they will run away.
This is not an even match.
Three huge questions the world is asking:
Will the U.S. send ground troops?
The only way to defeat Iran is a ground invasion,
which would require hundreds of thousands, even millions, of soldiers.
Will the U.S. use nuclear weapons?
If it starts losing the war, will it choose nuclear escalation?
Which other countries will get involved?
The situation is already so dangerous that Germany, France, and the UK are discussing entering the war.
If Europe joins, Russia and China may also enter on Iran’s side.
This could become aworld war.
Because the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz are so strategically important,
global powers will eventually be forced to intervene.
We will use game theory to analyze what is happening on the ground and where this is leading.
Let’s continue.
The U.S. has military bases all over the Middle East.
Originally, they were set up to protect monarchies imposed by the British-American empire,
to control local populations.
These bases are supposed to provide defense,
but in reality, they cannot effectively defend against Iranian attacks.
The reason is simple:
the U.S. military was designed for the Cold War.
The Cold War was defined by Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).
Both sides had nuclear weapons and avoided direct war.
So the U.S. military was built not to win an asymmetric war,
but toproject power and maintain the illusion of empire.
Empire is ultimately ahallucination, an aura of invincibility.
If you fear it, you obey it.
But it is not necessarily built to fight a real modern war.
That is the absurd reality today:
U.S. bases are spread across the Gulf,
making them perfect targets for Iran.
By attacking these bases, Iran can collapse the GCC economies
and ultimately destroy the American imperial system.
To simplify the war:
Red: U.S. and Israel, focused on Tehran, using “shock and awe” to decapitate leadership
Yellow: Iran, counterattacking everywhere, targeting Bahrain, Qatar, etc., to create chaos, destroy economies, and destabilize regimes
But Iran views this astotal holy war.
Its command structure is decentralized.
There is no single person in charge.
Each region operates on its own plan.
Killing the Supreme Leader changes nothing.
The U.S. military doctrine of “cut off the head, the body dies”
completely fails in Iran.
Even more ironically:
The people in Iranian cities — educated, progressive, most likely to support Western values —
are the ones being killed by U.S. bombs.
The people who will fight to the death are religious fanatics and Shia militants in rural areas.
The U.S. is destroying the very people who might be sympathetic to it,
and leaving behind the people most committed to jihad against it.
Now I want to explain a key concept:asymmetry.
It means the two sides are fighting different wars with different tools,
because one side is vastly more powerful than the other.
America is a great empire with unlimited resources, dollar hegemony, and global control.
Iran has been under sanctions for 45 years, poor, with limited technology.
But you must understand:
nations that are poorer and oppressed often have stronger morale, are more unified, and more cohesive.
Iran’s key weapon is theShahed drone:
Cost: about $50,000 each, sometimes as low as $35,000
Easy to fit on a truck, deploy anywhere in Iraq, hide anywhere
Iran produces about 500 per day
Estimated inventory: around 80,000
One drone can destroy a desalination plant, an oil field, a hotel — massive damage at low cost.
How does the U.S. defend?
With THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) and Patriot systems.
One interceptor missile costs about$1 million.
You are shooting a $1 million missile at a $50,000 drone,
and often need two or three missiles to succeed.
This makes no economic sense.
Worse:
Missile defense systems are big, slow, stationary,
easy for Iran to spot and attack.
When they explode, they represent massive losses.
You might ask:
Iran has been using drones for a decade.
Drones were heavily used in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Why didn’t the U.S. learn and prepare?
The answer ismilitary doctrine + corruption.
Doctrine determines how you fight, how your bureaucracy works, how you spend money.
The U.S. military is used to Cold War thinking:
showing strength, deterring, not actually fighting a real war.
Its weapons are designed to intimidate, not to win modern wars.
They are extremely expensive, ineffective, inflexible, and uninnovative.
More importantly, there is deep corruption in the military-industrial complex.
The U.S. does not care about winning wars;
it cares about spending as much money as possible so insiders can profit.
That is why the U.S. is in this mess.
Another rarely discussed but critical issue:water stress.
Let me show you a world map of water stress.
100% means you are using exactly as much water as the environment can renew.
Above 100% is unsustainable.
The numbers in the Middle East are catastrophic:
Iran: 72% (already very high)
Bahrain: almost 4,000%
Dubai: 17,000%
This means:
Iran does not need to kill U.S. soldiers or destroy military bases.
It just needs to blow up desalination plants,
and the GCC will collapse on its own.
Of course, Iran’s 72% water stress is also dangerous.
Although Iran can destroy the GCC much faster,
the U.S. and Israel can target Iran’s water system in return.
Let me give you an example:Lake Urmia in northern Iran.
It was once the sixth-largest saltwater lake in the world.
In 1984, it was huge.
Twenty years later, it is mostly dried up;
you can walk across parts of it.
That’s how serious Iran’s water crisis is.
And that is the key weakness the U.S. and Israel plan to exploit:
cutting off Iran’s freshwater supply to create national collapse.
Iran’s second fatal weakness:ethnic diversity.
Iran is a multi-ethnic country.
The center is Persian, but there are at least ten other ethnic groups.
People in border regions often identify more with neighboring countries than with Iran.
So the long-term U.S. strategy is crystal clear:
Destroy Iran’s water supply
Fragment Iran along ethnic lines
Let the divided regions fight over water
This is the American plan:
to completely dismantle Iran as a unified nation-state,
weaken Persia,
then sponsor various ethnic factions with money, weapons, and political support,
so they fight endless wars over water.
Iran would then never again be a threat.
This is an evil plan, which is why the U.S. will never admit it publicly.
But if you look at water and ethnic maps, the strategy is obvious.
How can Iran respond?
The answer:ignite a global Shia uprising.
Among the world’s Muslims, about 90% are Sunni, Shia are the minority.
Shia are concentrated mainly in Iran but spread globally.
Iran’s first strategy:
launch aglobal jihad of Shia Muslimsagainst the American empire.
This is already happening:
Shia in Pakistan have stormed the U.S. embassy
The U.S. embassy in Iraq is under constant attack
U.S. diplomatic targets are being hit in many places
With the leader martyred, vengeance becomes a religious duty,
and this uprising will continue for a very long time.
Iran’s second strategy:
unify the entire Islamic world.
Most Muslim countries today are run by unpopular dictatorships
that survive only because of U.S. support —
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Algeria, etc.
If people overthrow these U.S.-backed regimes,
Iran will become the leader of theentire Islamic world, not just the Shia world.
This is Iran’s ultimate goal: to establish a pan-Islamic bloc.
To summarize:
U.S./Israel plan: fragment Iran, create water conflicts, permanently weaken Iran
Iran plan: holy war, unify Shia Muslims, overthrow American empire, build an Islamic union
And the center of all this is the GCC,
because it is thelinchpin of the American empire.
GCC countries sell oil for U.S. dollars,
then invest those dollars in U.S. stock markets.
Since 2012, these investments have exploded.
Iran’s logic is straightforward:
Cut off oil → GCC can’t earn dollars → can’t invest in U.S. markets → U.S. stock market crashes → U.S. economic depression.
About a quarter of U.S. stock market growth comes from a handful of giant tech companies:
Microsoft, Google, Apple, and other AI leaders.
These are exactly the companies the GCC invests in.
If GCC money leaves, these companies collapse in value,
and the U.S. falls into a deep depression.
Today’s class was just an overview.
We covered a huge amount of information.
Over the next few weeks, we will dive deep into each issue
so you truly understand what is really happening.
Any questions so far?
Feel free to ask anything about what we’ve learned.
THE END
特別聲明：以上內(nèi)容(如有圖片或視頻亦包括在內(nèi))為自媒體平臺(tái)“網(wǎng)易號(hào)”用戶上傳并發(fā)布，本平臺(tái)僅提供信息存儲(chǔ)服務(wù)。
Notice: The content above (including the pictures and videos if any) is uploaded and posted by a user of NetEase Hao, which is a social media platform and only provides information storage services.
