伊朗和以色列的“不可能三角”

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作者：朱兆一

北京大學(xué)匯豐商學(xué)院世界經(jīng)濟(jì)智庫副教授

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"},"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"},"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"font-size: 18px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"},"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"},"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{},"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"},"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"data-pm-slice":"0 0 "},"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"},"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"data-pm-slice":"0 0 "},"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"},"para",{"tagName":"section","attributes":{"style":"font-size: 18px;line-height: 1.8;letter-spacing: 1px;padding: 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;"},"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"},"para",{"tagName":"p","attributes":{"style":"margin-bottom: 0px;margin-top: 0px;"},"namespaceURI":"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"}]" bdsfid="420">今年早些時(shí)候爆發(fā)的戰(zhàn)爭讓大多數(shù)人猝不及防。這場涉及美國、以色列和伊朗的直接軍事對(duì)抗，令整個(gè)海灣地區(qū)陷入數(shù)十年來最嚴(yán)重的惡性循環(huán)。沙特石油設(shè)施遭襲起火，卡塔爾暫停液化天然氣生產(chǎn)，阿聯(lián)酋三天內(nèi)承受近900枚導(dǎo)彈與無人機(jī)襲擊。這些國家無一主動(dòng)求戰(zhàn)，卻無一例外深陷其中。

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此時(shí)令人格外不安的是，即便1991年海灣戰(zhàn)爭也有清晰的邏輯、明確的目標(biāo)和可預(yù)見的終點(diǎn)。而這一次，無人知道戰(zhàn)爭將如何收?qǐng)觥?/p>

這場戰(zhàn)爭的根源無法追溯至某一次襲擊或某一項(xiàng)政策誤判。我們所目睹的，是伊朗與以色列兩國近乎必然的碰撞，而它們都陷入自己制造的結(jié)構(gòu)性困局，我將之稱為“不可能三角”：三個(gè)相互矛盾的核心國家目標(biāo)，可以同時(shí)追求其中任何兩個(gè)，卻永遠(yuǎn)無法三者兼得。除非這兩個(gè)三角被打破，否則中東永無持久和平，只會(huì)有以不同形式反復(fù)燃燒的戰(zhàn)火。

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伊朗的三角：真主、核彈與面包

伊朗三角的頂點(diǎn)分別是：伊斯蘭共和國的意識(shí)形態(tài)認(rèn)同和反美反以的基本立場；持續(xù)追求核武能力；以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與民生福祉的現(xiàn)實(shí)需求。

1979年革命誕生的政權(quán)，其合法性建立在反抗美國霸權(quán)、反對(duì)以色列的存在之上。這并非務(wù)實(shí)派可以悄悄修改的外交立場，而是整個(gè)體系的意識(shí)形態(tài)基石，是最高領(lǐng)袖權(quán)威的來源。放棄它，政權(quán)存在的理由便隨之瓦解。

其核邏輯冷酷而自洽。伊朗戰(zhàn)略家從利比亞的卡扎菲身上吸取了教訓(xùn)：放棄核計(jì)劃，最終身死國滅。而擁有核武器的國家，即便孤立，也無人敢輕易觸碰。核彈既是地區(qū)強(qiáng)權(quán)的象征、“抵抗軸心”領(lǐng)袖的資格憑證，更是最終防止政權(quán)更迭的威懾手段。

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" bdsfid="653">當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間3月12日凌晨，在耶路撒冷上空，以軍防空攔截彈擊中導(dǎo)彈，導(dǎo)彈碎片落下。（圖源：新華社）

任何一個(gè)困局都無法靠武力解決。美以可以摧毀伊朗導(dǎo)彈系統(tǒng)，清除革命衛(wèi)隊(duì)指揮中心，迫使伊朗付出慘重代價(jià)，但這一切都無法消解伊斯蘭共和國的意識(shí)形態(tài)邏輯，也無法解決伊朗年輕人的就業(yè)危機(jī)，更不會(huì)改變伊朗對(duì)核威懾的根本訴求。

同樣，伊朗導(dǎo)彈可以耗盡以色列與美國的攔截彈庫存，向海灣國家施加巨大壓力，但無法改變巴勒斯坦人口現(xiàn)實(shí)，無法修復(fù)以色列不斷受損的國際形象，也無法松動(dòng)極右翼對(duì)執(zhí)政聯(lián)盟的政治鉗制。軍事力量無法打破結(jié)構(gòu)性的困局。

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出路及其代價(jià)

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" bdsfid="737">在美國總統(tǒng)克林頓的斡旋下，巴勒斯坦民族解放運(yùn)動(dòng)領(lǐng)袖阿拉法特（右）與以色列總理拉賓（左）握手一幕成為歷史性的一刻。

拉賓曾經(jīng)嘗試過，但遭暗殺。貝京曾與埃及實(shí)現(xiàn)和平，但付出了真正的政治代價(jià)。歷史上出現(xiàn)過有勇氣的以色列領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，問題只在于下一位何時(shí)出現(xiàn)。

美國的作用無法回避。數(shù)十年近乎無條件的支持，實(shí)際上削弱了本可推動(dòng)以色列政治做出艱難選擇的外部壓力。當(dāng)任何批評(píng)都被本能貼上反猶標(biāo)簽、每個(gè)聯(lián)合國決議都被否決時(shí)，強(qiáng)硬立場就相當(dāng)于獲得了一份永久的免責(zé)保護(hù)。只有改變這種結(jié)構(gòu)性動(dòng)態(tài)，“兩國方案”才有可能從外交辭令變?yōu)楝F(xiàn)實(shí)政策。

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被分析報(bào)告遺忘的人

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在所有戰(zhàn)略框架和地緣算計(jì)之后，最終回到一個(gè)更簡單的問題：真正受苦的是誰？

一位朋友2025年底到訪伊朗。德黑蘭并非她想象的模樣，那里有真實(shí)的咖啡館文化，有時(shí)尚的年輕人，其活力遠(yuǎn)超外界想象。但在一家咖啡館，柜臺(tái)后的年輕女孩在結(jié)賬時(shí)悄悄塞給她一張折好的紙條。她想在迪拜找工作，寫下了自己的聯(lián)系方式。

這個(gè)細(xì)節(jié)我始終無法忘懷——把希望折進(jìn)一張紙片，遞給只交談五分鐘的陌生人。要絕望到何種地步，才會(huì)如此？這位女孩并非沒有能力，她能在國際化的咖啡館工作，能用英語與外國顧客交流，能在短暫接觸中判斷對(duì)方值得信任。她只是活在一個(gè)看不到前路的架構(gòu)中。

對(duì)加沙的孩子而言，代價(jià)則觸及生存的根基。那里正在造就一代沒有真正童年的人，他們?cè)趶U墟中長大，失去父母，目睹家園被毀。這種成長經(jīng)歷會(huì)在成年后留下怎樣的印記？會(huì)埋下怎樣的種子？20年后地區(qū)將為此付出怎樣的代價(jià)？軍事簡報(bào)不會(huì)回答這些問題。

這場戰(zhàn)爭必須結(jié)束。不是因?yàn)槿魏我环竭_(dá)到了目標(biāo)，而是因?yàn)槎嗤涎右惶欤陀懈嗥胀ㄈ藶樗麄冾I(lǐng)導(dǎo)人解不開的政治死結(jié)付出生命。兩個(gè)“不可能三角”不會(huì)自行消解，戰(zhàn)火會(huì)以不同形式反復(fù)降臨，直到某種更根本的東西發(fā)生改變。但在那之前，先讓槍炮停下來吧。

政治的終極本質(zhì)是“人”。所有關(guān)于安全剛需、核威懾、意識(shí)形態(tài)合法性的宏大敘事，最終都必須回答一個(gè)樸素問題：它是否讓普通人的生活變得更好？如果答案是否定的，那么這些敘事所維持的，或許不過是政客保住權(quán)力的工具，而非真正的國家利益。*

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